Friday, April 30, 2010
LETTERS TO JULIET
Thursday, April 29, 2010
IRON MAN Backlash Begins?
We all know how short I am on IRON MAN 2 at $400+. I mean, I cannot get short enough on this stock. I think it will do fine at the box office but asking $400 million in 24 days is a Herculean task by any stretch of the imagination (or stretch of Scarlett Johansson's hot black catsuit). And with ROBIN (of the) HOOD trailers looking more and more like ye Olde English GLADIATOR, IM Deuce's box office prospects may be somewhat impacted. I wish IRON MAN 2 well and desperately want to be entertained next weekend, but this film's $100 overvalued.
The market is already starting to turn against it, however slightly. For the first time since I have started shorting it, IRON MAN 2 has gone below my average price paid. Considering the movie is still a week away from release, this is a great sign that the market is coming to grips with how overvalued it is.
Get short, IM2. Get as short as you possibly can.
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Sunday, April 25, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 4/25/10
There's a saying that goes something like "No one has ever gone broke underestimating the taste of the American public." Or something like that. Such has been proven with this lackluster weekend at the North American box office.Do I have sour grapes about THE LOSERS staggering to the weekend tape with a paltry estimated $9.6 mil for fourth place? Absolutely. That movie is the type of fun, disposable action-lite movie
that tends to do pretty well two months from now.
With the HSX common multiplier of a movie's 4 week box office performance averaging out to 2.7 times its opening weekend gross, that puts THE LOSERS well short of my average long of $42. Sad to say, I will be reducing most of my exposure to it, if not all (word of mouth has been strong online, yet not translated to box office receipts. Hmm...).But then you have J-Lo and her horrendously marketed THE BACK-UP PLAN. It's one of those "high concept" comedies that featured nary a single laugh in any of its ubiquitous trailers and commercials. And when you see the movie, it's all that you're scared it would be: less-than-sporadically amusing, tortured dialogue, and somewhat chemistry-free. I will say this for CBS (Films): they are committed to their stars. Consider this Alex O'Loughlin's third failed pilot.
True, THE BACK-UP PLAN is estimated at north of $12 mil this weekend. But that multiplier only spells out to $32 mil in 4 weeks, so I feel okay about still shorting it at $30. Once word gets out how wack it is after this weekend, it will precipitously drop. Expect about $27 mil overall, despite having the big name rom-com landscape all to itself.
But look at HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON go! I only wish I could've gone even longer on this film. I love this film. It is a visual and storytelling delight. Even on a weekend where the American public got it wrong, they can still get some things right. We just can't make any money off them.
And a shout-out to OCEANS! With a four day opening gross of $8.46 estimated, that 2.7 multiplier has us sitting pretty at $22.8 in 24. Not a bad pick-up for long at $12, eh?
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
THE REEL DEAL Archive: THE WEDDING PLANNER
MAJOR PLAYERS : Jennifer Lopez (The Cell) and Matthew McConaughey (U-571).
I fought this one, y'all. Despite Jenny Lo-Lo's obvious Crush-worthy charms, I really wanted not to like this one. But a surprising thing happened en route to @@ City - it ended up charming the cynicism off of me.
Mary Fiore (Lopez) is an especially anal, highly successful, very lonely wedding planner ("Those who can't wed, plan"). If she can land San Francisco's wedding of the year, the Donolly Wedding, then she will earn a partnership in the company. When Mary is saved by dashing young doctor Steve Edison (McConaughey) from a freak accident, she entertains the notion of opening up her insular little world - that is until she finds out that Steve is MARRYING Francine Donolly (Bridgette Wilson).
Despite a hilarious Italian immigrant (Justin Chambers) obsessed with marrying her, the only relationship that matters in this movie is Mary and Steve's. Luckily, Lopez and McConaughey have enough chemistry to pull it off. After flaming out on his own "A Time to Kill" hype as the next big thing, Matthew McConaughey has staged a quiet little comeback of quality work, adding "Planner" to "U-571"'s theatrical success. And this movie should play well into Valentine's Day week, thanks to his charming, back-and-forth chemistry with Lopez.
Ah, Jennifer. J.Lo. We loved you in "Out of Sight," didn't understand why you did "The Cell," but now we're ready to love you all over again. Often playing an extension of herself (i.e. calm and guarded), Jenny Lo-Lo goes outside herself to play the well-organized yet insecure and jittery Mary. I mean, Lopez is absolutely adorable in this film, from her curious, inviting eyes to her inquisitive little head tilts. Not since "Selena" have we seen J-Lo so vulnerable.
She gets a lot of help. The wardrobe on this flick, particularly for the two leads, is impressive in its simplicity; they look like walking ads for J. Crew and The Gap. With all the various weddings featured in the movie, major props to the art department, too. I know they had to work overtime to make everything as beautiful as it was. Lopez's hair and nails were impeccable, almost distracting at times was her flawless French manicure. Although part of my resistance lay in the over-emotionally manipulative musical score, it was refreshing to hear a soundtrack so romantic, so old school, it was like listening to a modern reinterpretation of Tchaikovsky's "Peter and the Wolf."
And that, sadly enough, is where this film got me - in it's romance. At times it tries too hard, but, more often than not, "Planner" gets it right, layering on the sentimentality and sap where the comedy fails. And the comedy does fail - the script is unimpressive and not terribly funny. It doesn't always get it right, but as a date movie, as much as I fought it, "The Wedding Planner" just WORKS. In a world where we are highly desensitized, where we are jaded and cynical to the point of emotional neutrality, I welcome a movie like "The Wedding Planner, a movie that optimistically sweetens through its sap. I could use a little more sap in my life. I think we all could.
@@@ REELS
(THREE REELS)
It's pretty hot - go give it a shot.
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What I'm Seeing this Weekend
Just so I can see how much of a train wreck it really will be.
Believe it or not, I actually was one of the few, the brave who paid cash money to go see GIGLI its opening weekend. Yep - GIGLI. In all honesty, it wasn't THAT bad. But it wasn't THAT good at all either.
I predict a similarly soft opening for our girl J-Lo. Despite supersaturated marketing, I expect a $6 mil opening, en route to $27-28 mil in 4 week cume. I stand firm on shorting it at $30.
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What to do about THE LOSERS?
Maybe I'm just hard-headed. But every time I see THE LOSERS trailer, it brings a smile to my face. Big guns, hot girl, things that go boom. What could be more escapist than that? Plus you have the likable Jeffrey Dean Morgan ("Grey's Anatomy," WATCHMEN), goofy pseudo-hunk Chris Evans, and the "still too skinny for me but she could still get it" Zoe Saldana...Sounds like a good time to me.Who's gonna stop them? THE BACK-UP PLAN (or, as J-Lo calls it, "Fly Girl Dancer")? Please. Look for THE LOSERS to surprise with a $20 million opening weekend, en route to a $60 mil cume in 24 days with good reviews. Of course, this could all change when I see it on Friday and it sucks.
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Why Do I Short and the Shorting of SHREK
Take IRON MAN 2 for example. Shorting it at $403 - let alone its current price of $406 - is a no-brainer. Only two films in the history of mankind have grossed over $400 million in their first 24 days: THE DARK KNIGHT and AVATAR. Does IRON MAN 2 look wildly cool and entertaining? Yes. But asking it to AVERAGE over $16 MILLION A DAY is simply ridiculous. James Cameron's full-court press and the added 3-D ticket price made AVATAR's first $400 milli possible. With THE DARK KNIGHT, even your grandmomma knew of Batman. Unless she's a hot granny under 50 or comic book fangirl, I promise you she's never heard of Tony Stark.
So I short. I short, I short, I short. I short SEX AND THE CITY 2 at $185 because the first one grossed $153 OVER ITS ENTIRE RUN. I short THE A-TEAM because the '80s are over and it joins a crowded action tentpole marketplace that will have ROBIN HOOD, PRINCE OF PERSIA, and IRON MAN 2 already out, competing for the same dollars. I short PRINCE OF PERSIA because videogame adaptations have been notoriously tricky to be profitable (and definitely not for $173 mil in 24 days). And even IRON MAN 2 is at least $100 million overvalued.
I short, I short, I short. Until the film derivative community figures it out, I suggest you do the same. Together, it's time for us to GET SHORTY.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 4/18/10
I've been bullish on DRAGON since seeing it opening weekend twice (gotta go see it with your family once, right?) and knew it had legs. Having gone long on it every step of the way, DRAGON's close out tomorrow will reap juicy returns as it is estimated to have a final 24 day cum of $158.6 mil.
A late surge for HOT TUB TIME MACHINE ($42.5 mil cume) will yield a mild win for JCC as we were long at $42.26.
And as much as I despise Tyler Perry films, with $54.8 mil cume in 17 days, being long at $59 should be a slight victory as I predict a 24 day cume of $60-61 mil.
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