Sunday, April 25, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 4/25/10
Do I have sour grapes about THE LOSERS staggering to the weekend tape with a paltry estimated $9.6 mil for fourth place? Absolutely. That movie is the type of fun, disposable action-lite movie
that tends to do pretty well two months from now.
With the HSX common multiplier of a movie's 4 week box office performance averaging out to 2.7 times its opening weekend gross, that puts THE LOSERS well short of my average long of $42. Sad to say, I will be reducing most of my exposure to it, if not all (word of mouth has been strong online, yet not translated to box office receipts. Hmm...).But then you have J-Lo and her horrendously marketed THE BACK-UP PLAN. It's one of those "high concept" comedies that featured nary a single laugh in any of its ubiquitous trailers and commercials. And when you see the movie, it's all that you're scared it would be: less-than-sporadically amusing, tortured dialogue, and somewhat chemistry-free. I will say this for CBS (Films): they are committed to their stars. Consider this Alex O'Loughlin's third failed pilot.
True, THE BACK-UP PLAN is estimated at north of $12 mil this weekend. But that multiplier only spells out to $32 mil in 4 weeks, so I feel okay about still shorting it at $30. Once word gets out how wack it is after this weekend, it will precipitously drop. Expect about $27 mil overall, despite having the big name rom-com landscape all to itself.
But look at HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON go! I only wish I could've gone even longer on this film. I love this film. It is a visual and storytelling delight. Even on a weekend where the American public got it wrong, they can still get some things right. We just can't make any money off them.
And a shout-out to OCEANS! With a four day opening gross of $8.46 estimated, that 2.7 multiplier has us sitting pretty at $22.8 in 24. Not a bad pick-up for long at $12, eh?
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