Sunday, May 30, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/30/10
What did I learn this weekend? Stop being so damn jittery over Friday grosses and market reaction. As we have established throughout this year, the Hollywood Stock Exchange is rarely a rational market, especially during the throes of an opening weekend.
As you may see in our portfolio, I have divested our short position on SEX AND THE CITY 2, having chucked it at $137, giddy with a 26% profit, assuming it couldn't fall any further for a realistic 24 day output. Au contraire, mes freres. With an anticipated five day opening haul of $49.21 mil, SATC2's 24 day take should range between $100.63 to $132.87 mil, depending on whether you want to apply the 2.7 multiplier by the movie's first actual three days or its 5 day weekend. Being somewhat conservative - and seeing how the first SATC grossed $132 mil in its initial 24 days - I will take the latter number of $132.87 for its predicted 24 day take. So we left about $5/share on the table. My bad.
So there - lesson learned. Before we start panic trading off of Friday numbers, it's good to give it at least until Sunday morning to truly see which way the wind is blowing. We have also learned that people don't react to the early numbers on Sunday morning. With IRON MAN 2 set to delist around $274, who ARE these nimrods who are holding onto it at $288 right now??? Only one question from this weekend remains: What to do with all your IM2 profits?
If you got in when we did, going short at $404 for a whopping 32% and $129 gain at this point, that's a lot of jingle jangling in your pockets. Whatever to spend it on? My humble suggestions, while still fairly cheap:
KARATE KID: long
TWILIGHT ECLIPSE: short (SJP)
TOY STORY 3: short (SJP)
SHREK 4: short (yes, even at $221, it's at least $30 overvalued)
SORCERER'S APPRENTICE: short (SJP)
There you have it. Your next moves, with the notable SJPs (Sarah Jessica Parkers/wildly overvalued stocks) plainly marked. Enjoy the rest of the weekend. Stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Friday, May 28, 2010
***THE REEL DEAL ARCHIVE***: SEX AND THE CITY
MAJOR PLAYERS: Sarah Jessica Parker, Kim Cattrall, Cynthia Nixon, Kristin Davis, Chris Noth, and writer/director Michael Patrick King (all TV's "Sex and the City").
Carrie. Miranda. Charlotte. Samantha Jones. Oh yes, the ladies (and their wardrobes) are back, as fierce and stylistically puzzling as ever. This movie doesn't need me, your garden variety heterosexual single black man. What this movie is, however, is a clarion call to women the world over. Despite some backlash from the black female community, "Sex and the City" is so ingrained in a woman's DNA - much like Oprah - that my ex's Pavlovian response at 11 PM was to turn to TBS to get her Carrie Bradshaw fix every weeknight like most Prada-lovin' American females. Is there ANYTHING in this movie for the fellas? Gentlemen, there are rubies to be found if you just hang around...
I get why the plot has been a little hush-hush. The ladies are four years older, if not happier: Samantha's (Cattrall) still her potty-mouthed self, living in LA as manager to TV star boyfriend Smith Jerrod (Jason Lewis); Charlotte (Davis) still enjoys her husband Harry (Evan Handler) and adopted Asian baby Lily (shared by ADORABLE twins Alexandra & Parker Fong); Miranda (Nixon) still Type A's her way through lawyer life with her son Brady (Joseph Pupo) and bartender husband Steve (David Eigenberg); and then there's Carrie (Parker) and Mr. Big (Noth), a.k.a. John James Preston. At a crux in their own relationship, it's no secret from the commercials that they plan for the wedding event of the season, giving the "SATC" girls an excuse to get together continuously and drink cosmos. Yet unexpected turns in each of the women's stories pitch "Sex" into surprisingly serious and dramatic territory, each with the potential to affect their relationships with the men in their lives - and each other.
"Sex and the City" has never been much about the plot, but more about the characters, the clothes, and the, well, you know. Here, "SATC" has the advantage of all four, most notably the plot. True, this movie is LONG, clocking in at some two and a half hours. Somehow, Michael Patrick King keeps it all moving, weaving three very compelling storylines with a less satisfying fourth (felt like there wasn't much for Charlotte to do but bug her eyes out and be supportive). The setup of examining everyone's happily ever after starts off with fizzy frivolity before giving way to decent drama (and acting) for the cosmo queens. Plus, they do it with style - all the name brands are here and then some, whizzing over my head like batting statistics to many of the fairer sex. How glam is the wardrobe? Shoot, I found myself saying "Wow, those are nice shoes" and "That's a nice top." Good lord - does this make me gay?!?!
Fear not for your masculinity, brothas, there's stuff for you here, too. How about copious female nudity, courtesy of Samantha's oversexed LA neighbor? Try a plus-sized Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) as Carrie's bright-eyed, purse-renting young assistant Louise from St. Louis, busting out of just about every fab outfit, who moved to New York "to fall in love" (awwww). Thanks to some very solid writing, a universally emotional King script will truly have your girl on the edge of her seat, if not into yours. Fellas, if you can't get some after this movie, there is simply none to be had.
Fashion Week, lunches, a Mexican getaway - all of this is nice but mere background for the seamless performances of the cast. Kim Cattrall is cougar perfection as fifty-year-old reformed playa Samantha Jones, whose struggles with monogamy and her waistline are extremely relatable. No one can simultaneously rock outrageous dresses with a patronizingly sexy, dopey-girl smile the way Cattrall's sexbomb Samantha does. Adding another layer to her redheaded ice queen, Nixon's Miranda is so jaded by the reality of her sexless union that she doesn't have time to wax and can be found muttering "Marriage ruins everything" (thanks for the head's up, Miranda - I'm scared straight). Maybe it's because I haven't watched much "SATC" since it ended its HBO run years ago but Kristin Davis' big-eyed, bouncy optimist Charlotte seems almost three-dimensional now. Her screams of delight are as shocking as a bit of newly-formed pessimism late in the movie: "Nobody gets everything they want." Carrie's response? "You can't stop being who you are because you're afraid." Bravo.
And what of Carrie and Big? There would be no movie if Sarah Jessica Parker's Carrie had it all together. Older and a bit bonier, Parker as Carrie still expresses herself through astute voiceover and fashion forward/faux pas clothes, turning in a nicely done emotional performance as "Sex's" Beyonce. Noth is all Cheshire Cat grin and fine suits as Mr. Big, Carrie's perennial "will he or won't he" boyfriend with the, um, biggest potential. Their love is full grown, adult, sophisticated yet passionate - the chemistry is palpable.
Once again, I state that as a heterosexual black male, I haven't been missing the ladies of "Sex and the City." I was, however, curious to see if they could pull it all off, that whole tricky TV-to-movie transition, shoes and purses be damned (heresy, I know, ladies). With only the clearly calculated but ultimately endearing move of casting a sistagurl as Carrie's junior BFF (I know it's all a white girl fantasy but the New York City of HBO's "SATC" hasn't been that white in reality since it was called New Amsterdam) and the "Titanic"-esque run time of 148 minutes detracting, "Sex" gives it to you in startlingly touching fashion. Fellas, you are safe to bring a date. Ladies, you are safe to rev up those "Sex and the City" movie parties. It's cheaper than a pair of Manolos - and in your size, too.
@@@ REELS
(THREE REELS)
It's pretty hot – go give it a shot.
Continue...
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 5/28/10
Having already embarked upon my Friday double feature movie ritual, you may notice some changes to What I'm Trading. While justly discounted as yet another failed attempt at cinematizing a videogame property (see vidgame graveyard full of your SUPER MARIO BROS. and FINAL FANTASY type flicks), PRINCE OF PERSIA, surprisingly, delivers the goods. Once I consciously divorced myself of the typically Hollywood whitewashed casting of a mid-Eastern tale (don't even get me started on Hollywood's ethnocentrism; you trying to tell me Freida Pinto couldn't have played Gemma Arterton's exotic beauty (and apologies to the innocent, Ms. Arterton - you are eyeball-singeingly HOT)??), I reluctantly found myself enjoying PERSIA's rousing action and "just north of pedestrian but adequate enough for an action film" banter. Mind you, the plot is hopelessly convoluted, throwing out new rules almost as if it's making it up as it goes along, but the movie is fun nonetheless. Once word gets out, it should do fine at the box office. So, naturally, I abandoned my short position from $173 at its current $105 to book a healthy 40% profit. I wouldn't necessarily go long on it now, either, but it should delist somewhere between $102-110 24 days from now.
Never one to waste profits, I have promptly doubled down on shorting THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE. Having been forced to endure yet another trailer for it before PERSIA (both are excreted through the Mouse House), APPRENTICE looks DOA unless a far more compelling trailer can be cut for it before its July 14 release. Oh, it was due to open July 16, but Christopher Nolan's increasingly intriguing INCEPTION look to thoroughly bury it so Disney bumped up APPRENTICE's release date by a couple of days. Won't matter: currently at $121, feel free to short away, as it is at least $40 overvalued.
As we have more of a sample size, I have posted JCC's overall portfolio performance at the top of the What I'm Trading section to keep you abreast of how we are doing. At almost 24% for the month and 23% for the year, once Cantor is (fingers crossed!) approved, JCM Cinema Capital will help you crush your mutual fund accounts with steady and consistent earnings.
Continue...
Monday, May 17, 2010
The Latest Value Gold Mine: The SJP
I'm tired of using movies as adjectives. Instead of calling my latest value discovery "the new IRON MAN 2" or "the next TOY STORY 3," we need a new name for it. How about we call it an "SJP" as in Sarah Jessica Parker.
And so is our newest value gold mine, TWILIGHT: ECLIPSE. At $340 where we shorted it today, this third movie in the TWILIGHT SAGA is at least $65 overvalued for a 24 day run. I could not transfer my 40% and 30% respective profits from OCEANS and THE LOSERS fast enough to short this stock. The second TWILIGHT didn't even gross $300 mil over the life of its RUN. Sure, the Twihards have ECLIPSE looking like a cinematic U.S. Mint doused with an extra helping of angst and pale glitter makeup. But you're telling me that the market expects it to rip off almost $350 million in 24 days (altogether now: which only 4 movies in the history of mankind have ever done)???
Pshaw, I say (we don't use that word nearly enough today - pshaw)! In my neverending quest for value, in my effort to sex (AND THE CITY) up the search for value on par with its end result, profits, I give you my latest value-find, and the inaugural SJP: TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE. Short it and prosper, my friends. Short the SJP. Continue...
Sunday, May 16, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/16/10
I can't even revel in this weekend's 60% drop in IRON MAN 2 (and subsequent market reaction) because of those damn tweenagers. As reflected by its notable absence in my portfolio, LETTERS TO JULIET has been jettisoned, along with 22% of my investment and the blogosphere's hopes that Amanda Seyfried would become "the next Julia Roberts." When EAT PRAY LOVE comes out in August, the real Julia Roberts will undoubtedly out-Julia Seyfried and show her how it's done with some box office worth a damn. Opening to a stool-softened $13.8 mil after weeks of previews and teenage girl giggling, even with only 25-30% weekly drops, maintaining a long position at almost $45 would be untenable. Bah humbug.
However, the market has been unusually slow to adjust to a couple of properties: OCEANS and THE LOSERS. With OCEANS set to delist today, we had to sell our long position from $12.29 today at $17.21 for a whopping 40% profit. Cash in hand, it was promptly reinvested (along with the smattering of our JULIET losses) right into THE LOSERS today. Somehow, some way, this movie, which has grossed only $22.3 million through Friday, was still trading at $27.5 as of post time. Unbelievable. So we're shorting accordingly for some last minute profits before it delists at its true price tomorrow, which we gauge should be no more than $23.3.
Moral to our madness? Even when it's darkest, there is dawn. Let that also be a tease for a newly discovered, wildly overvalued property on the Exchange that I shall reveal later this week (after I have taken my appropriate position, of course). As my neverending quest for value continues, I have discovered a property so grossly overvalued, I am calling it "the new TOY STORY 3" - which is sayin' somethin'. Stay tuned. And stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Friday, May 14, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 5/14/10
From an investor standpoint, I have little to add this weekend. Although excited about seeing the Ridley-Russell remake of ROBIN HOOD, I have already seen LETTERS TO JULIET, a surefire sleeper romance hit starring the wildly talented Amanda Seyfried's Big Eyes (and Amanda Seyfried). For us "Big Love" fans on HBO, it's nice to see her get some shine (as well as being bandied about as "the next Julia Roberts"?? Hold on there now...). I stand firm at going long on JULIET at $44, with a JCC-estimated opening weekend of $18.5 million and a 24 day take of $60 million.
So what completes my weekly Friday doubleheader? Against better judgment, I'm subjecting myself to JUST WRIGHT. Seeing how it's written by Mike Elliott, the hack who brought us LIKE MIKE, BROWN SUGAR (heinously overrated by my community, by the way), and MTV's "Carmen: A Hip Hopera," I just hope I can make it through the movie. Pray for me, y'all. Pray for me.
Continue...
***THE REEL DEAL ARCHIVE***: GLADIATOR
Major Players: Russell Crowe (The Insider), Joaquin Phoenix (8MM), Djimon Hounsou (Amistad), director Ridley Scott (GI Jane).
“At my signal, unleash hell.” – Maximus (Crowe). This is the one THE REEL DEAL’s been waiting for, ever since that teaser trailer during the SuperBowl. Armed with the seamless Russell Crowe, a badass script, and an old school script rife with conflict, “Gladiator”’s “hell” is so good, it makes one vow never to see heaven.
Circa 180 AD in the Roman Empire, “Gladiator” throws us “Saving Private Ryan”-like into the heat of battle, as outstanding general Maximus crushes an army in Germania for the Empire (“Some people just do not know when they are conquered.”). His only desire is to go back to his wife and kid at home, a place some two plus years removed for his having waged war for the greater glory of the Empire. When ailing Caesar Marcus Aurelius desires to name the general his successor as emperor of Rome, Maximus is screwed out of the leadership in a major way by Commodus, Aurelius’ devious, amoral, passed-over son (a wickedly brilliant Phoenix). Before we know it, Maximus is left for dead, sold into slavery, and reborn as a gladiator, leading a different army of men through the minor leagues of slave-gladiatorial circuits until his triumphant return to Rome’s centerstage. In a sport where its heroes truly loomed like gods, wielding not only the will of the people but also the power of life or death, Maximus vows to Commodus that, “I will have my revenge—in either this life or the next.” And you know what? I believe him.
As evidenced by cool lines like that, “Gladiator” is nine figures of machismo and summer action fare well spent. It has been a while since we have seen a movie as retro-charismatic as this one, content to revel in its antiquity not only in dialogue but also in cinematic style. We are truly transported into a world where words like “strength and honor” mean something, thumbs up or down have more fatal results than merely killing a movie, and someone’s name—and word—is bond. Huge props go to costume designer Janty Yates (whose on point period pieces feel like a character in themselves); Oscar award winning Hans Zimmer (Prince of Egypt) and Lisa Gerrard for the bombastic, epic-like musical score; and to the scripting battle royale of David Franzoni, John Logan, and William Nicholson, for tag-teaming on a compelling, moving, and (somehow) coherent script. Aided with gritty, almost newsreel-like cinematography and editing in the battle scenes and beautiful sets overall, Ridley Scott takes your breath away with his artfully staged scenes of violence and quiet reflection. All of the actors are summarily excellent, breathing life into wholly three dimensional characters, particularly the shockingly ambitious Commodus. Joaquin Phoenix (with bad-guy eye shadow) imbues him with a sense of desperation for adoration, which explains his bloodlust (and often comic attempts) for respect.
But this is undoubtedly the movie that will make Russell Crowe a HUGE star. Unfairly armed with a talent for slipping unrecognizably into his roles, the Australian actor inhabits Maximus with all the appropriate degrees of righteousness, tenderness, and athletic arrogance needed as the emotional center of this “sport” (and story), one that would make a combination of the most violent parts of football, boxing, and wrestling seem wussy by comparison. Never once does his eyes let you forget the value of human life, that there are no winners in this sport/story, just survivors. Although at least 15 minutes too long, “Gladiator” is forgiven, and definitely bound for THE REEL DEAL’s DVD collection— “in either this life or the next.”
@@@@ REELS
(FOUR REELS)
An urban legend/instant classic.
Continue...
Monday, May 10, 2010
The New IRON MAN 2: TOY STORY 3
Ah...there's more than a snake in Woody's boot! Currently trading around $355, TOY STORY 3 may be even more grossly overvalued than IRON MAN 2 ever was, if you can even fathom such a premise. The original TOY STORY made $191 million domestically over the life of its run. TOY STORY 2 made over $245 million over the life of its run. Ten years ago. Even if you adjusted for inflation, TS2 would've made that $380 million of 2010 dollars in 143 days. Get the theme here?
Although a month removed from the premiere of SHREK: THE FINAL CHAPTER (or whatever they're calling it this week), TS3 will be hard-pressed to crack $200 million in 24 days, let alone $300.
I hate to go to the well again, but here goes my bucket: Only four films in the history of Hollywood have grossed $350 million in their first 24 days. DARK KNIGHT, AVATAR, PIRATES 2, TRANSFORMERS 2 - that's the list. Now SHREK 2 managed $353 million in 26 days. But it didn't take a decade off between its predecessor either like TS3.
It's quite alright. Plenty of room on the bandwagon. Get TOY SHORTY today. Continue...
Sunday, May 9, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/9/10
With a studio-estimated $133.6 opening weekend, IRON MAN 2 over $30 million off its hyperbolic tracking estimates of a $165 million, record-shattering weekend. If you have been following JCC, you are perfectly positioned to take advantage of the irrationality of the markets by shorting it. In fact, there's still money to be made if you get in now. JCC target estimates are for $322.65 million after 24 days, with average 50% successive weekend drops. This isn't the kind of supremely satisfying movie that elicits multiple repeat viewings a la THE DARK KNIGHT or AVATAR. Even some fanboys will be one-and-done with this feature.
What we've also learned is there is no such thing as being too prideful to make money. Yes, THE LOSERS are back. But at $30.85, we saw a prime opportunity to rectify one of our earlier mistakes, this time shorting our beloved LOSERS, which is obviously overvalued by a third by the market.
What did we really learn this weekend? Stay firm, my friends. When you believe in a position, stay firm. And when it comes to adjusting to market conditions...Stay thirsty, my friends.
Continue...
Friday, May 7, 2010
What I'm Seeing/Have Seen This Weekend 5/7
As per my Tweeted review, IRON MAN 2 is a @@@ caper: fun, irreverent, with a kick-ass climax. But what keeps it from its @@@@ predecessor is the heavy exposition in the second act that grinds the action-line to a halt. Sure, it's merely doing its job in deepening Tony Stark's backstory, setting up the Marvel Universe, and raising the emotional stakes. However, the first IRON MAN was able to keep the action humming at an appreciable clip while also making us care about the characters - without bogging the viewer down.
What does this mean for our investments? The much ballyhooed best weekend ever may not happen. This is a movie worth seeing 1.5 times in the theater, as in half the people will see it twice, half will only see it once. If it weren't for others wanting to see it with me, I would be perfectly fine with just seeing it once. In contrast, when IRON MAN opened in 2008, I was more than happy to see it on back-to-back nights. I think I may have even have seen it a third time in theaters.
I say all that to say this: IRON MAN 2 will print money its opening weekend, but not much longer after that. A new ROBIN HOOD trailer preceding my show looked better than the already intriguing ones before it - and that flick opens next weekend. Even if IRON MAN 2 makes its $165 million blogo-hypersphere predicted open, I still feel good about having it at $355 million after 24 days - which is a Herculean feat even at that. As we can see with our new and improved stats under "What I'm Trading," I have the JCC position currently undervaluing market rates at nearly 16% (JCC Target-Current Price) with our short position believing IRON MAN 2 is 13.63% overvalued to our JCC Target (Price Paid-JCC Target).
Translation? JCC believes the market has overvalued IM2 by 16% to what we've paid and that the box office will prove us to beat the market by at least 13% after 24 days. Stay tuned - and get short IRON MAN 2 at anything over $400. Plenty of money to be made...
Continue...
***THE REEL DEAL ARCHIVE***: IRON MAN
MAJOR PLAYERS: Robert Downey, Jr. (Chaplin), Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in Love), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Jeff Bridges (Seabiscuit), and director Jon Favreau (Elf).
"Constitutionally incapable of being responsible" Tony Stark (Downey), a genius billionaire industrialist by day and relentlessly shallow playboy by night, is captured by an Afghani ambush after demonstrating his lethal weaponry to the U.S. military. While under forced coercion to duplicate his wares for a terrorist army called the Ten Rings, Stark turns the tables, creating a hi-tech armored suit with which to kick copious amounts of bad guy ass. After busting out and returning to LA a changed man, Stark devotes his energy to fighting the evil he'd help create as the "Merchant of Death" weapons manufacturer only to find do-no-gooders closer to home than he had thought.
"I am SO geeking out right now!" So quoth the movie critic to his screening partner, who bobbed her head enthusiastically in agreement. And this is only a third of the way into the movie. Boys and girls...the summer has officially begun!
Shinier than its "hot rod red" suit, "Iron Man" is the perfect modern day comic book action hero movie. Beautifully scripted (by a credited committee of four, nonetheless) with production values off the chart, Marvel's first foray into film financing (this is their first fully funded venture out of their own pockets) is just flat-out fun from start to finish. It's laden with all the good, pertinent "isms" - terrorism, patriotism, altruism, and then some - while serving up a techie's wet dream of special effects; think "Minority Report" on meth. It will print money but, even better, it DESERVES to.
The Academy nominated cast doesn't hurt, either. Beefy, bald, and bearded Bridges glowers his way through every frame with the very comic book-ish halo of distrust over his grill as Obadiah Stane, Stark's business partner. Adorably strawberry-tressed Paltrow doesn't just mail in her Oscar talents, playing beyond spunky yet giving as good as she gets as Stark's Girl Friday personal assistant Pepper Potts. Even Howard shows signs of life despite a fairly background role as Stark's best friend Col. Jim Rhodes (yes, fanboys, we even get a hint at what's to come for Mr. Rhodes in the sequel (there WILL be a sequel, right?) with his longing glimpse in the third act at a War Machine suit).
Even though he claims to "not be the superhero type," Robert Downey, Jr. as Tony Stark is one of the most inspired pieces of superhero casting since...well, maybe ever. Tailoring the script's fizzy, contextual humor to his own rapid fire, subversively dry wit, Downey is BUILT for this. Especially early on, Tony lives so large, is so over-the-top playerish, he makes "Big Pimpin'" era Jay-Z look like Gary Coleman. His whips are tight, his clothes are fly, and his plane is just sick (think a party bus - in the air). Downey's Tony Stark is a 21st century superhero: flawed, a little sarcastic, yet solid enough at his core to accept his shortcomings enough to put them aside for the moment when duty calls. Attention, Hollywood: Having credible actors like Paltrow, Howard, and Downey only make such scenes like Stark's come-to-Jesus about weapons manufacturing moving and lactose intolerant. Just because it's a comic book movie does not mean it has to be cheesy.
Therein lies its universal appeal. Zigging when our cynical audience predicts it will zag, Favreau directs "Iron Man" with enough comedic zest, gearhead cool, and popcorn flick frenzy to complement every ounce of Downey's snarky charms. It also takes you to another world, a far more entertaining one in a surreal-rich LA that probably exists but I've never seen, whizzing by in two hours to deliver upon the lofty promise of its commercials. Cackling with childlike glee at Stark's attempts to fly, I once again leaned in to whisper, "Sign me up for 'Iron Man 2!'" And 3. And 4...
@@@@ REELS
(FOUR REELS)
An urban legend/instant classic.
© 2008, Edwardo Jackson
Continue...
Thursday, May 6, 2010
IRON MAN Eve
I have my ticket. 12:01 AM, IMAX, let's get it on.
I am excited but tempered. Sequels are hard to get right. We want them - need them - to be better than originals. EMPIRE STRIKES BACK to me is one of the best films - action or otherwise - of all-time. And I'm sure the hype in 1980 before it came out, must have been deafening.
Will IRON MAN 2 become a victim of its own hype? The 'net is crowing about a $165 million opening weekend - which would knock THE DARK KNIGHT off its pedestal as the best opening weekend of all-time. With ticket inflation alone, this could possibly be true. Lord knows if this sucker were in 3D, I'd be incredibly long on it. Considering there hasn't been a $50 million opening weekend since CLASH OF THE TITANS early April. Are people simply holding onto their money until IRON MAN 2? Probably.
So, let's say it does set the record. Will it gross over $400 million in 24 days, something only THE DARK KNIGHT and AVATAR (driven by 3D) have done? Even though my short term portfolio is taking a pounding for it, I'm incredibly short on IRON MAN 2 at $408.
Don't be a victim of the hype. Get short on IM2, too.
Continue...
Sunday, May 2, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/2/10
Having shorted NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET at $102 - despite the lovely charms of the soon-to-be-canceled "Melrose Place's" luscious Katie Cassidy - JCC couldn't be happier with somewhat soft opening on a decidedly soft weekend.
How soft was it? I didn't even go to the movies this weekend. I can count on one hand how many weekends I've missed going to the movies so far this year, and we're even talking about the traditional dead zone of January-February! At this rate, using the 2.7 opening weekend multiplier, ELM STREET is heading for an $86.9 million 24 day cume. I suspect this will be lower - say, $78-82 mil at best - with IRON MAN 2 coming in next weekend to suck up all the oxygen in the marketplace. If ELM STREET get so much as $14 million next weekend, it should consider itself lucky. I have divested myself of THE BACK-UP PLAN at $27 for a mild gain. With its $7 million second weekend for a total cume of $22 mil, this yawning exercise in chemistry-free romantic leads is on pace for some $33 million in business. Having shorted it at $30, I feel good at getting out while the getting was good. I feel bad about the taste of the American public, however (seriously, y'all, PLEASE check out Lopez in THE WEDDING PLANNER. Woefully underrated and Adam Shankman's studio debut (easily his best, most engaging work, closely followed by HAIRSPRAY), WEDDING PLANNER is low rent magic with two young stars before the calling of superstardom infected McConaughey and Lopez with bad choices).
FYI, I've added TAKERS to the portfolio. Featuring a young, hot, diverse cast of pretty faces spanning movies and music, TAKERS should clean up in the late August dead zone, especially since Matt Damon's THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU has vacated for 2011. Its only competition the opening weekend of August 20th is Bow Wow's FRIDAY-like LOTTERY TICKET and the NANNY MCPHEE sequel. Seriously. You can afford to be bullish on TAKERS and go long at $27.71. While Lionsgate's THE EXPENDABLES will have opened the weekend before to satisfy the older action audience, with its geriatric action heroes like Stallone and Schwarzenegger, TAKERS is left all alone to clean up the young action market. Should do at least $40 mil in biz, with a solid $15-17 million opening. Plus when my 67 year old mother wants to see it just from the previews, you've got something there.
Go long on TAKERS, like Montana to Rice. I have.
Continue...
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
