Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Stick a fork in it...
As always, stay valued, my friends. Continue...
Monday, June 28, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 6/28/10
1. Pixar can't stop, won't stop.
Averaging $14 mil a day during the week and continuing the trend with a plus-sized second weekend of $59 mil, TOY STORY 3 keeps making me reset the JCC Target. While now targeted at $315, it's not quite the SJP we thought it would be, but still will provide positive value when it's all said and done. Currently trading at $331, there's still about 5% more value to be had in shorting this film.
2. The market is still slow on the uptake.
That's the only way to explain how/why JONAH HEX, with an anemic $1.6 million weekend and on pace for our JCC Target of $12.74 mil (if not its 2.7 multiplier of $14.53 mil) is still being traded at twice that amount. At $24, it's a joke - and still open to value hunters all over with a 91% difference between our target price and its current price.
Same goes for our beloved A-TEAM, which, with one week left to go, still hovers over $80 when it can't possibly make more than $73. Short away, my friends. I just wonder if the HSX will be as painfully unaware as the real-money Cantor Exchange.
And speaking of...
3. THE CANTOR EXCHANGE WAS APPROVED BY THE CFTC TODAY!!!
Never mind that Congress has language in the conference version of fin-reg designed to kill it. With Cantor and crew the most trading ready of the two approved markets, look for them to dive headfirst into trading ASAP, and battle any future legislation in the court system.
TWILIGHT: ECLIPSE is trading at a laughably high $328, despite our $321 short position. Get a grip, y'all. Nobody male over the age of 25 cares about this franchise, which runs incredibly hot in its opening weekend (we predict a $120 million haul) before dropping precipitously (i.e. 72% for its second weekend for NEW MOON). Neither one of the previous TWILIGHT movies have even sniffed $300 milli, nor will this one. It doesn't have 3D and it's one-demo focused. IMAX will help, but only so much. It's our current SJP of the moment, currently overvalued by 24%. Although pre-release hype is currently killing my short term portfolio, anticipate long term riches. Get short, like, right now.
And with that, enjoy your week. Real money trading is just around the corner! Stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Friday, June 25, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 6/25/10
So I'm going to see KNIGHT & DAY today. There, I admitted it in the open. It seems like critics and general opinion is hot to hate on this movie. In two hours time, I shall be able to decide for myself.
But this is a weekend of uncertainty. JCC has taken no position on the wide openers of KNIGHT and GROWN-UPS. Despite previously proven box office stars, Tom Cruise's inconsistent box office of late and the sheer crudity/stupidity of Sandler's marketing for his latest have the distinct smell of stank - and unpredictability - to both of these movies. I know my limits - and will happily stick to my more surefire bets like riding JONAH HEX all the way down to the ground or watch our beloved A-TEAM sputter along to fully realize its 18% overvaluation.
A word on TOY STORY 3: This thing is a monster. Yes, our earliest predictions totally shortchanged it. Still, we feel comfortable at shorting it at $335, although it has not developed into the Sarah Jessica Parker stock we hoped and dreamed it could be. Still, we will take an 11% gain and $38 profit any day. We just will have to ride it out to delist, apparently, before we make believers out of the market.
So KNIGHT & DAY, GROWN-UPS (ugh), and even indie WINTER'S BONE is on the docket for this weekend (and speaking of indie, go see SOLITARY MAN starring a tour de force of lechery for Michael Douglas. Such an ugly, warts-and-all performance, it'll surely garner Mr. Zeta-Jones some Oscar talk). Enjoy the sun and stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Sunday, June 20, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 6/20/10
1. Never doubt Pixar. Ever.
Okay, so we didn't exactly DOUBT Pixar, but we did think $120 million for TOY STORY 3 was a bit much. And while $109 million is nothing to sneeze at, it still does not change our short position at $335.
2. People can't do math.
$109 x 2.7 = $294. So why, throughout the weekend until this morning, was TS3 trading for as high as $352??? Yes, we were all a bit emotional after TS3's monster $41 million Friday. But let's examine a few facts, shall we?
- Only one animated movie in the history of mankind has grossed over $300 million in 24 days: SHREK 2 in 2004.
- Only one Pixar movie has ever grossed over $300 million period: FINDING NEMO in 2003 at $339 million. How long did it take for it to cross $300 million? Fifty days.
- But that was 2003. Adjusted for inflation, NEMO's overall haul would have equaled $447 million (all numbers are courtesy of our friends at BoxOfficeMojo.com). That's a 24% 2010 markup. So in 2010 dollars, NEMO would have crossed the $300 million threshold in 228.76 million 2003 dollars, or 24 days.
- In comparison, NEMO's opening weekend was $70.2 million, or $87.1 mil today. Let's say that if NEMO had been released today, it most likely would have enjoyed all the advantages of current animation technology and exhibition, meaning it would have come out in 3D on ginormous IMAX screens a la TS3. With an additional 18% markup for IMAX and 3D screens, NEMO's opening weekend would have equated to $102.72 million today. So using the industry-standard 2.7 opening weekend multiplier to estimate 24 day performance, the most successful domestic film in Pixar history would have a current day $277.34 modern day gross.
- Even with TOY STORY 3 running 5.8% ahead of this inflation-and-IMAX/3D-adjusted NEMO gross after this opening weekend, we still stand behind our $278 target valuation. Let's not forget that last year, the critically and audience acclaimed Pixar four-quadrant hitter UP enjoyed the same technological advantages as TS3 (okay, maybe a few less IMAX screens, but still the 3D surcharge) and grossed "only" $294 million - over the life of its run. While I have no doubt that TS3 could cross $300 million, I just don't think it will be in the first 24 days. All of those teens and tweens who grew with the TOY STORY franchise will be sucked into the Twihard vortex of ECLIPSE in five days, with mostly adults and young children left to see TS3 and THE KARATE KID.
3. JONAH HEX is the MACGRUBER of PG-13 action this summer.
Talk about your death knells. $5.1 million? For an opening weekend??? I saw JONAH freakin' HEX. And it wasn't that freakin' bad. It also wasn't that freakin' good to overcome the critical stank ahead of it.
Please believe that after Nikki Finke's Deadline posted late Friday night estimates for the weekend for JONAH HEX, I dumped whatever remaining money I had into shorting the hell out of it, even though I was already realizing hefty profits at an average of $82 paid. Even at $65, we're at a whopping 59% profit, and climbing. If JONAH HEX actualizes its dreams of becoming one of the lowest tentpole movies this summer at $13-14 mil, we could be talking up a 79% profit. That's just plain wrong.
4. Don't doubt the power of Twitter.
There is no other explanation for why Ashton Kutcher's KILLERS still squeezed out $5 million this weekend. Surely it's because of his devoted millions-plus Twitter following that this movie isn't a glossier version of JONAH HEX at the box office. Even though we've already booked a gaudy 45% gain on this movie, a movie this uninspired should be performing even more poorly. I'm disappointed in you, Ashton. Aim low!
5. There are a lot of haters out there for Jaden Smith.
So there you have it. Expect next weekend to have similarly emotional weekend fluctuations with TWILIGHT: ECLIPSE poised to open to a $100 million-plus weekend, only to recede with 62% and 70% weekend-to-weekend drops like tidewater from the sand. But here at JCC, we all know value. And we're in it for the (24 day) long haul.
Stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
***THE REEL DEAL ARCHIVE***: WALL*E
Players: Voices of Ben Burtt, Elissa Knight, Jeff Garlin, co-writer/director Andrew Stanton
Logline: In a vast, empty, junkyard of a 28th century Earth devoid of human life, WALL*E (Waste Allocation Load-Lifter * Earth Class; voiced by Burtt) goes about his business trash compacting the planet until the arrival of EVE (Extraterrestrial Vegetation Evaluator; Knight), a glistening, ethereal and, well, all-out lethal probe droid, for whom WALL*E falls and chases throughout the galaxy as she races to report her findings to the last vestiges of a bloated humanity living upon a giant, corporate-sponsored spaceship nation called Axiom.
The Deal: I have only one question: How on (or out of the) Earth do the creatives at Pixar keep hitting it out of the park? Like an artistic Barry Bonds on animation steroids, "WALL*E" is a positively darling, offbeat movie featuring a strong eco-friendly message with as solid a story as we have come to expect from the Pixar crew. Straight out of the "so ingenius it's genius" territory, Stanton's (Finding Nemo - one of my all-time favorite movies) "WALL*E" enjoys itself immensely with foreign interpretations of our everyday junk, from bubble wrap to Twinkies to cheesy Technicolor musicals. When we do see the human race, which has long since left Earth on Wal-Martesque-owned Buy N Large's corporate nation-ship, it is one lazy, overfed society where everyone's fat and overly catered to by smart device, with their only responsibility to be distractedly happy. A testament to how potent the now-perfunctorily seamless Pixar visuals and story are, dialogue is at a premium in this script, as WALL*E communicates via a myriad of sound effects, (as does his would-be paramour EVE) orchestrated by an aptly expressive, instructive Thomas Newman (Finding Nemo) score. There's more than a touch of "I Am Legend" to the opening, as it's just WALL*E and his cockroach best friend, cleaning the earth one junk cube at a time.
At its heart, "WALL*E" is an intergalactic love story. Voiced by R2D2 himself, Ben Burtt, WALL*E is a lonely, resourceful little fella with tons of personality who quietly yearns to be in love, thanks to his endless viewings of "Hello, Dolly!" He's curious, loyal, romantic...he's the perfect man. Because he's a machine. EVE, on the other hand, with her chubby white body and laser cannon arms, hovers and flits around with fairly bad intentions. Not only is she technologically superior to the earthbound WALL*E, but also her answer to everything is shoot first, ask questions never - she's a robotic Dick Cheney (sorry, that was redundant). Even though WALL*E's love is fairly unrequited initially due to EVE's laser-like focus (literally) on her prime directive, they develop into a genuinely bilateral symbiosis, sometimes with heartbreaking results. Is it sad that one of the most admirable love stories of the summer is between two (allegedly) inanimate objects...animated, or inspiring that artisans exist at Pixar to unfailingly provide us attractive, quality entertainment every. Single. Summer? I'll take "Inspiring" for $200 (million), Alex!
Move over, Carrie & Mr. Big. Here comes EVE and WALL*E!
@@@@ REELS
(FOUR REELS)
An urban legend/instant classic.
Continue...
Friday, June 18, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 6/18/10
Naturally, I'm seeing TOY STORY 3. I have no doubt Pixar will entertain. However, I am over the age of seven, have no kids, and am not super-crunk to go see this one. The last TOY STORY was some 11 years ago, when I had even less reason to cotton to Pixar movies as fledgling adult, so I don't share any nostalgia for this trilogy.
And it is that muted interest that I am counting on. Over here at JCC, we are shorting TS3 (as our SJP of the moment) at $335, targeted at $256. While the blogosphere is abuzz with $120 million opening predictions, I predict an opening in the $95 million range.
All these $120 mil openings floating out there are ridiculous. IRON MAN 2 was the highest tracked movie of the year – EVERYBODY knew about it/wanted to see it – and it could only scrape together $128 million. Pixar’s highest opening weekend ever was for THE INCREDIBLES (a fine movie) with $70.5 mil in 2004. Even in 2010 dollars, that’s probably about $77-79 mil.
True, 3D and inflation may add some more to potential box office, but Pixar doesn’t do huge, blockbuster openings. They do very large openings with long, long legs (which is why I am short on TS3 at $321; it may get there in cume, but not in 24 days). Pixar movies tend to gross less than 30% of their final gross in their opening weekends, as opposed to the SHREK movies which average over 30% – LEGS. Plus Mom is only mildly interested in seeing it this weekend; don't doubt my box office bellwether!
Believe it or not, I am going to see JONAH HEX as well. I think its marketing has been atrocious, the lead is so disfigured as to be unwatchable, and Megan Fox has proven not to be able to open a closet door outside of the TRANSFORMERS franchise. But it's got John Malkovich, Lance Reddick ("Fringe", "The Wire") as a Reconstruction-era Q-like gadgets guru, and it's still got the visuals of the very same Megan Fox. It's worth a peek. Also, I want to see what a 12% Rotten Tomatoes reviewed film looks like, so I can gleefully watch how far it will drop (shorting at $82 it has already plummeted 45% and past my wildest dreams). Box Office Predict's $10.6 estimate holds true, that sucker could sink to $28. We can only hope.
The rest of the portfolio, with its gaudy 24%-positive per position status, is pretty damn healthy considering TWILIGHT hype has surpassed its true value at this point. But when hype and reality meet after next weekend, watch for IRON MAN 2 like drops...
Continue...
Monday, June 14, 2010
MACGRUBER: Mystery solved
Nothing to see here, folks, nothing to see here... Continue...
Donde Esta MacGruber?
I have scoured all of my online box office resources that are publicly available (Rentrak won't let me subscribe to their service, sadly enough) and MacGruber is invisible. Does that mean that in its fourth weekend in release that all theaters pulled the movie? It's still out in theaters - just barely. Or maybe it grossed next to nothing that it wasn't eminently reportable?
Just curious to see how close we were in our target as it should delist in 90 minutes. I still wonder who these people are who haven't shed their shares at $9.59. There's no effin' way it's crossing $8.6 mil, let alone $9 milli. Damn, I wish I could buy more shares...
Turning our attention to the future, what shall we do with our 30% and 10% gains from MACGRUBER and SHREK 4, respectively? Hello, SORCERER'S APPRENTICE and TWILIGHT...
Continue...
Sunday, June 13, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 6/13/10
1. Never doubt my mother. When a senior citizen is as excited about a movie as her son and those a generation after him (I heard the teenagers coming out of my Friday morning viewing of THE KARATE KID exclaim "I'm going to China tomorrow!"), don't trust machine based estimates that are some 50% off your own - go with your gut.
2. Don't mess with Will Smith. Once he found his stride in the '00s, Will Smith is ridiculously bankable. KARATE KID was his baby, with production company Overbrook Entertainment shepherding the remake as a vehicle for Smith's martial arts-loving kid Jaden. According to BoxOfficeMojo.com's analysis of producer James Lassiter, Smith's longtime friend and full-time producing partner - albeit missing a few films from his portfolio, but whatever - Overbrook has averaged $113 million a picture for a $1.13 billion total domestic. Trust me when I tell you that worldwide, it's more like $2.5 billion total. True, most of Overbrook's work are Will Smith-acted vehicles. However, they are still responsible for critically acclaimed movies like THE SECRET LIFE OF BEES, ATL, and two seasons of not-so-critically acclaimed TV show "All of Us." Look for TAKERS, which JCC is currently long on at $27, to do sleeper hit late August business as well.
3. MACGRUBER is invisible. How low-grossing was the SNL overstretched sketch this weekend? It's gross has been so infinitesimal, I cannot even find posted estimates of its weekend gross. My only regret is that the Hollywood Stock Exchange won't let me buy more shares to short before it delists tomorrow afternoon. Look for almost 30% profits at delist tomorrow at our average price paid.
5. And last but not least, man beats machine. This is why I am in this game - heart. Machines and tracking estimates and all the statistical analysis in the world will always miss something sometimes, otherwise we might as well start buying up stock in Skynet. With 6% positive this month and 33% for the year so far, JCM Cinema Capital knows what wins. Let's keep your portfolio on the winning track.
Stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Friday, June 11, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 6/11/10
Box Office Predict, a site that has attempted to impose rationality on the irrational tastes of humans by predicting box office performance by their proprietary statistically driven model called GENAU (would've loved to see models that predicted Tyler Perry coming!), and JCC are involved in an ideological struggle, a la Jack vs. Locke, reason vs. faith. GENAU predicts an uber-soft $23.1 mil opening for THE KARATE KID, a favorite around here for those who have been following JCC. I predict a $45 million opening, and am long on it for an average of $101 (I have bought shares of it as high as $107). At $23.1, the 24 day, 2.7 multiplier would put it at $62.37, while my $45 million opening puts it at $121.5, the current JCC Target.
By the end of this weekend, there will be a victor. But given how JCM Cinema Capital invests from a 24 day holistic standpoint, one of us, or both of us, can be right or wrong, and still have JCC be right. While I believe THE KARATE KID will gross significantly more than $23 million this weekend, even if it doesn't, I still believe it will be significantly profitable at $101 mil after 24 days.
Who are you with - man...or MACHINE???
Oh, yeah, and THE A-TEAM will be seen, too. Stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Sunday, June 6, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 6/6/10
SHREK cannot be stopped. The fourth installment continues to chug away, albeit at a pace well below the market rate of $224. At an average price paid of $233, I stand firm at shorting it all the way down to its anticipated delist price of $206.
PRINCE OF PERSIA persists in perplexing people. Now it looks like it won't crack $90 after 24 days, making my long position at $89 somewhat untenable. The second it bounces up 2%, it's time to chuck this film for no gain and steer clear.
As you may notice, MACGRUBER is back in the fold. After posting a stunning $96,000 over the weekend (that's a little over $32K a day, y'all), I had to jump on this. At $8.4 mil after three weekends with a current market price of $12.10, there's at least 35% in value lying in wait. How did I arrive at an $8.94 target? If you assume an average of $32K a day for the remaining seven days, you have a 24 day gross of $8.6 mil. If you are generous and assume $100K during the weekdays and $150K/day on the weekend - numbers it didn't even come close to matching - then you have $9.25. So, conservatively, I split the difference: $8.94. Yet, in all honesty, if you assume traditional 50% weekly audience declines for movies in release, MAC is slack with only $112K for the next seven days for an embarrassingly low 24 day cume of $8.51 mil. I could not get short enough on this film; in fact, HSX blocked me from buying as much as I wanted, capping me at their trading limit. So sad. There's anywhere from 35-42% in value there...
With our more balanced portfolio now (no more 63% portfolio-hogging IRON MAN 2s; our top derivative is TOY STORY 3 at 29.2%) we are well positioned to enjoy the big box office of THE KARATE KID next weekend. Short MACGRUBER, stay away from SEX AND THE CITY 2 as well as PRINCE OF PERSIA...And stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Friday, June 4, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 6/4/10
Clearly positioning itself as the potential THE HANGOVER for this summer, GET HIM TO THE GREEK reunites FORGETTING SARAH MARSHALL castmates and director Jonah Hill, Russell Brand, and Nicholas Stoller. Early buzz is decent, but I'll see for myself this afternoon.
I'm saving my enthusiasm for possibly seeing sci-fi thriller SPLICE later this weekend and next weekend for THE KARATE KID, which just looks better with each and every preview. Stay long on it, I say, especially at $104. Stay valued, my friends. Continue...
Sunday, May 30, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/30/10
What did I learn this weekend? Stop being so damn jittery over Friday grosses and market reaction. As we have established throughout this year, the Hollywood Stock Exchange is rarely a rational market, especially during the throes of an opening weekend.
As you may see in our portfolio, I have divested our short position on SEX AND THE CITY 2, having chucked it at $137, giddy with a 26% profit, assuming it couldn't fall any further for a realistic 24 day output. Au contraire, mes freres. With an anticipated five day opening haul of $49.21 mil, SATC2's 24 day take should range between $100.63 to $132.87 mil, depending on whether you want to apply the 2.7 multiplier by the movie's first actual three days or its 5 day weekend. Being somewhat conservative - and seeing how the first SATC grossed $132 mil in its initial 24 days - I will take the latter number of $132.87 for its predicted 24 day take. So we left about $5/share on the table. My bad.
So there - lesson learned. Before we start panic trading off of Friday numbers, it's good to give it at least until Sunday morning to truly see which way the wind is blowing. We have also learned that people don't react to the early numbers on Sunday morning. With IRON MAN 2 set to delist around $274, who ARE these nimrods who are holding onto it at $288 right now??? Only one question from this weekend remains: What to do with all your IM2 profits?
If you got in when we did, going short at $404 for a whopping 32% and $129 gain at this point, that's a lot of jingle jangling in your pockets. Whatever to spend it on? My humble suggestions, while still fairly cheap:
KARATE KID: long
TWILIGHT ECLIPSE: short (SJP)
TOY STORY 3: short (SJP)
SHREK 4: short (yes, even at $221, it's at least $30 overvalued)
SORCERER'S APPRENTICE: short (SJP)
There you have it. Your next moves, with the notable SJPs (Sarah Jessica Parkers/wildly overvalued stocks) plainly marked. Enjoy the rest of the weekend. Stay valued, my friends.
Continue...
Friday, May 28, 2010
***THE REEL DEAL ARCHIVE***: SEX AND THE CITY
MAJOR PLAYERS: Sarah Jessica Parker, Kim Cattrall, Cynthia Nixon, Kristin Davis, Chris Noth, and writer/director Michael Patrick King (all TV's "Sex and the City").
Carrie. Miranda. Charlotte. Samantha Jones. Oh yes, the ladies (and their wardrobes) are back, as fierce and stylistically puzzling as ever. This movie doesn't need me, your garden variety heterosexual single black man. What this movie is, however, is a clarion call to women the world over. Despite some backlash from the black female community, "Sex and the City" is so ingrained in a woman's DNA - much like Oprah - that my ex's Pavlovian response at 11 PM was to turn to TBS to get her Carrie Bradshaw fix every weeknight like most Prada-lovin' American females. Is there ANYTHING in this movie for the fellas? Gentlemen, there are rubies to be found if you just hang around...
I get why the plot has been a little hush-hush. The ladies are four years older, if not happier: Samantha's (Cattrall) still her potty-mouthed self, living in LA as manager to TV star boyfriend Smith Jerrod (Jason Lewis); Charlotte (Davis) still enjoys her husband Harry (Evan Handler) and adopted Asian baby Lily (shared by ADORABLE twins Alexandra & Parker Fong); Miranda (Nixon) still Type A's her way through lawyer life with her son Brady (Joseph Pupo) and bartender husband Steve (David Eigenberg); and then there's Carrie (Parker) and Mr. Big (Noth), a.k.a. John James Preston. At a crux in their own relationship, it's no secret from the commercials that they plan for the wedding event of the season, giving the "SATC" girls an excuse to get together continuously and drink cosmos. Yet unexpected turns in each of the women's stories pitch "Sex" into surprisingly serious and dramatic territory, each with the potential to affect their relationships with the men in their lives - and each other.
"Sex and the City" has never been much about the plot, but more about the characters, the clothes, and the, well, you know. Here, "SATC" has the advantage of all four, most notably the plot. True, this movie is LONG, clocking in at some two and a half hours. Somehow, Michael Patrick King keeps it all moving, weaving three very compelling storylines with a less satisfying fourth (felt like there wasn't much for Charlotte to do but bug her eyes out and be supportive). The setup of examining everyone's happily ever after starts off with fizzy frivolity before giving way to decent drama (and acting) for the cosmo queens. Plus, they do it with style - all the name brands are here and then some, whizzing over my head like batting statistics to many of the fairer sex. How glam is the wardrobe? Shoot, I found myself saying "Wow, those are nice shoes" and "That's a nice top." Good lord - does this make me gay?!?!
Fear not for your masculinity, brothas, there's stuff for you here, too. How about copious female nudity, courtesy of Samantha's oversexed LA neighbor? Try a plus-sized Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) as Carrie's bright-eyed, purse-renting young assistant Louise from St. Louis, busting out of just about every fab outfit, who moved to New York "to fall in love" (awwww). Thanks to some very solid writing, a universally emotional King script will truly have your girl on the edge of her seat, if not into yours. Fellas, if you can't get some after this movie, there is simply none to be had.
Fashion Week, lunches, a Mexican getaway - all of this is nice but mere background for the seamless performances of the cast. Kim Cattrall is cougar perfection as fifty-year-old reformed playa Samantha Jones, whose struggles with monogamy and her waistline are extremely relatable. No one can simultaneously rock outrageous dresses with a patronizingly sexy, dopey-girl smile the way Cattrall's sexbomb Samantha does. Adding another layer to her redheaded ice queen, Nixon's Miranda is so jaded by the reality of her sexless union that she doesn't have time to wax and can be found muttering "Marriage ruins everything" (thanks for the head's up, Miranda - I'm scared straight). Maybe it's because I haven't watched much "SATC" since it ended its HBO run years ago but Kristin Davis' big-eyed, bouncy optimist Charlotte seems almost three-dimensional now. Her screams of delight are as shocking as a bit of newly-formed pessimism late in the movie: "Nobody gets everything they want." Carrie's response? "You can't stop being who you are because you're afraid." Bravo.
And what of Carrie and Big? There would be no movie if Sarah Jessica Parker's Carrie had it all together. Older and a bit bonier, Parker as Carrie still expresses herself through astute voiceover and fashion forward/faux pas clothes, turning in a nicely done emotional performance as "Sex's" Beyonce. Noth is all Cheshire Cat grin and fine suits as Mr. Big, Carrie's perennial "will he or won't he" boyfriend with the, um, biggest potential. Their love is full grown, adult, sophisticated yet passionate - the chemistry is palpable.
Once again, I state that as a heterosexual black male, I haven't been missing the ladies of "Sex and the City." I was, however, curious to see if they could pull it all off, that whole tricky TV-to-movie transition, shoes and purses be damned (heresy, I know, ladies). With only the clearly calculated but ultimately endearing move of casting a sistagurl as Carrie's junior BFF (I know it's all a white girl fantasy but the New York City of HBO's "SATC" hasn't been that white in reality since it was called New Amsterdam) and the "Titanic"-esque run time of 148 minutes detracting, "Sex" gives it to you in startlingly touching fashion. Fellas, you are safe to bring a date. Ladies, you are safe to rev up those "Sex and the City" movie parties. It's cheaper than a pair of Manolos - and in your size, too.
@@@ REELS
(THREE REELS)
It's pretty hot – go give it a shot.
Continue...
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 5/28/10
Having already embarked upon my Friday double feature movie ritual, you may notice some changes to What I'm Trading. While justly discounted as yet another failed attempt at cinematizing a videogame property (see vidgame graveyard full of your SUPER MARIO BROS. and FINAL FANTASY type flicks), PRINCE OF PERSIA, surprisingly, delivers the goods. Once I consciously divorced myself of the typically Hollywood whitewashed casting of a mid-Eastern tale (don't even get me started on Hollywood's ethnocentrism; you trying to tell me Freida Pinto couldn't have played Gemma Arterton's exotic beauty (and apologies to the innocent, Ms. Arterton - you are eyeball-singeingly HOT)??), I reluctantly found myself enjoying PERSIA's rousing action and "just north of pedestrian but adequate enough for an action film" banter. Mind you, the plot is hopelessly convoluted, throwing out new rules almost as if it's making it up as it goes along, but the movie is fun nonetheless. Once word gets out, it should do fine at the box office. So, naturally, I abandoned my short position from $173 at its current $105 to book a healthy 40% profit. I wouldn't necessarily go long on it now, either, but it should delist somewhere between $102-110 24 days from now.
Never one to waste profits, I have promptly doubled down on shorting THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE. Having been forced to endure yet another trailer for it before PERSIA (both are excreted through the Mouse House), APPRENTICE looks DOA unless a far more compelling trailer can be cut for it before its July 14 release. Oh, it was due to open July 16, but Christopher Nolan's increasingly intriguing INCEPTION look to thoroughly bury it so Disney bumped up APPRENTICE's release date by a couple of days. Won't matter: currently at $121, feel free to short away, as it is at least $40 overvalued.
As we have more of a sample size, I have posted JCC's overall portfolio performance at the top of the What I'm Trading section to keep you abreast of how we are doing. At almost 24% for the month and 23% for the year, once Cantor is (fingers crossed!) approved, JCM Cinema Capital will help you crush your mutual fund accounts with steady and consistent earnings.
Continue...
Monday, May 17, 2010
The Latest Value Gold Mine: The SJP
I'm tired of using movies as adjectives. Instead of calling my latest value discovery "the new IRON MAN 2" or "the next TOY STORY 3," we need a new name for it. How about we call it an "SJP" as in Sarah Jessica Parker.
And so is our newest value gold mine, TWILIGHT: ECLIPSE. At $340 where we shorted it today, this third movie in the TWILIGHT SAGA is at least $65 overvalued for a 24 day run. I could not transfer my 40% and 30% respective profits from OCEANS and THE LOSERS fast enough to short this stock. The second TWILIGHT didn't even gross $300 mil over the life of its RUN. Sure, the Twihards have ECLIPSE looking like a cinematic U.S. Mint doused with an extra helping of angst and pale glitter makeup. But you're telling me that the market expects it to rip off almost $350 million in 24 days (altogether now: which only 4 movies in the history of mankind have ever done)???
Pshaw, I say (we don't use that word nearly enough today - pshaw)! In my neverending quest for value, in my effort to sex (AND THE CITY) up the search for value on par with its end result, profits, I give you my latest value-find, and the inaugural SJP: TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE. Short it and prosper, my friends. Short the SJP. Continue...
Sunday, May 16, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/16/10
I can't even revel in this weekend's 60% drop in IRON MAN 2 (and subsequent market reaction) because of those damn tweenagers. As reflected by its notable absence in my portfolio, LETTERS TO JULIET has been jettisoned, along with 22% of my investment and the blogosphere's hopes that Amanda Seyfried would become "the next Julia Roberts." When EAT PRAY LOVE comes out in August, the real Julia Roberts will undoubtedly out-Julia Seyfried and show her how it's done with some box office worth a damn. Opening to a stool-softened $13.8 mil after weeks of previews and teenage girl giggling, even with only 25-30% weekly drops, maintaining a long position at almost $45 would be untenable. Bah humbug.
However, the market has been unusually slow to adjust to a couple of properties: OCEANS and THE LOSERS. With OCEANS set to delist today, we had to sell our long position from $12.29 today at $17.21 for a whopping 40% profit. Cash in hand, it was promptly reinvested (along with the smattering of our JULIET losses) right into THE LOSERS today. Somehow, some way, this movie, which has grossed only $22.3 million through Friday, was still trading at $27.5 as of post time. Unbelievable. So we're shorting accordingly for some last minute profits before it delists at its true price tomorrow, which we gauge should be no more than $23.3.
Moral to our madness? Even when it's darkest, there is dawn. Let that also be a tease for a newly discovered, wildly overvalued property on the Exchange that I shall reveal later this week (after I have taken my appropriate position, of course). As my neverending quest for value continues, I have discovered a property so grossly overvalued, I am calling it "the new TOY STORY 3" - which is sayin' somethin'. Stay tuned. And stay valued, my friends.
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Friday, May 14, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 5/14/10
From an investor standpoint, I have little to add this weekend. Although excited about seeing the Ridley-Russell remake of ROBIN HOOD, I have already seen LETTERS TO JULIET, a surefire sleeper romance hit starring the wildly talented Amanda Seyfried's Big Eyes (and Amanda Seyfried). For us "Big Love" fans on HBO, it's nice to see her get some shine (as well as being bandied about as "the next Julia Roberts"?? Hold on there now...). I stand firm at going long on JULIET at $44, with a JCC-estimated opening weekend of $18.5 million and a 24 day take of $60 million.
So what completes my weekly Friday doubleheader? Against better judgment, I'm subjecting myself to JUST WRIGHT. Seeing how it's written by Mike Elliott, the hack who brought us LIKE MIKE, BROWN SUGAR (heinously overrated by my community, by the way), and MTV's "Carmen: A Hip Hopera," I just hope I can make it through the movie. Pray for me, y'all. Pray for me.
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***THE REEL DEAL ARCHIVE***: GLADIATOR
Major Players: Russell Crowe (The Insider), Joaquin Phoenix (8MM), Djimon Hounsou (Amistad), director Ridley Scott (GI Jane).
“At my signal, unleash hell.” – Maximus (Crowe). This is the one THE REEL DEAL’s been waiting for, ever since that teaser trailer during the SuperBowl. Armed with the seamless Russell Crowe, a badass script, and an old school script rife with conflict, “Gladiator”’s “hell” is so good, it makes one vow never to see heaven.
Circa 180 AD in the Roman Empire, “Gladiator” throws us “Saving Private Ryan”-like into the heat of battle, as outstanding general Maximus crushes an army in Germania for the Empire (“Some people just do not know when they are conquered.”). His only desire is to go back to his wife and kid at home, a place some two plus years removed for his having waged war for the greater glory of the Empire. When ailing Caesar Marcus Aurelius desires to name the general his successor as emperor of Rome, Maximus is screwed out of the leadership in a major way by Commodus, Aurelius’ devious, amoral, passed-over son (a wickedly brilliant Phoenix). Before we know it, Maximus is left for dead, sold into slavery, and reborn as a gladiator, leading a different army of men through the minor leagues of slave-gladiatorial circuits until his triumphant return to Rome’s centerstage. In a sport where its heroes truly loomed like gods, wielding not only the will of the people but also the power of life or death, Maximus vows to Commodus that, “I will have my revenge—in either this life or the next.” And you know what? I believe him.
As evidenced by cool lines like that, “Gladiator” is nine figures of machismo and summer action fare well spent. It has been a while since we have seen a movie as retro-charismatic as this one, content to revel in its antiquity not only in dialogue but also in cinematic style. We are truly transported into a world where words like “strength and honor” mean something, thumbs up or down have more fatal results than merely killing a movie, and someone’s name—and word—is bond. Huge props go to costume designer Janty Yates (whose on point period pieces feel like a character in themselves); Oscar award winning Hans Zimmer (Prince of Egypt) and Lisa Gerrard for the bombastic, epic-like musical score; and to the scripting battle royale of David Franzoni, John Logan, and William Nicholson, for tag-teaming on a compelling, moving, and (somehow) coherent script. Aided with gritty, almost newsreel-like cinematography and editing in the battle scenes and beautiful sets overall, Ridley Scott takes your breath away with his artfully staged scenes of violence and quiet reflection. All of the actors are summarily excellent, breathing life into wholly three dimensional characters, particularly the shockingly ambitious Commodus. Joaquin Phoenix (with bad-guy eye shadow) imbues him with a sense of desperation for adoration, which explains his bloodlust (and often comic attempts) for respect.
But this is undoubtedly the movie that will make Russell Crowe a HUGE star. Unfairly armed with a talent for slipping unrecognizably into his roles, the Australian actor inhabits Maximus with all the appropriate degrees of righteousness, tenderness, and athletic arrogance needed as the emotional center of this “sport” (and story), one that would make a combination of the most violent parts of football, boxing, and wrestling seem wussy by comparison. Never once does his eyes let you forget the value of human life, that there are no winners in this sport/story, just survivors. Although at least 15 minutes too long, “Gladiator” is forgiven, and definitely bound for THE REEL DEAL’s DVD collection— “in either this life or the next.”
@@@@ REELS
(FOUR REELS)
An urban legend/instant classic.
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Monday, May 10, 2010
The New IRON MAN 2: TOY STORY 3
Ah...there's more than a snake in Woody's boot! Currently trading around $355, TOY STORY 3 may be even more grossly overvalued than IRON MAN 2 ever was, if you can even fathom such a premise. The original TOY STORY made $191 million domestically over the life of its run. TOY STORY 2 made over $245 million over the life of its run. Ten years ago. Even if you adjusted for inflation, TS2 would've made that $380 million of 2010 dollars in 143 days. Get the theme here?
Although a month removed from the premiere of SHREK: THE FINAL CHAPTER (or whatever they're calling it this week), TS3 will be hard-pressed to crack $200 million in 24 days, let alone $300.
I hate to go to the well again, but here goes my bucket: Only four films in the history of Hollywood have grossed $350 million in their first 24 days. DARK KNIGHT, AVATAR, PIRATES 2, TRANSFORMERS 2 - that's the list. Now SHREK 2 managed $353 million in 26 days. But it didn't take a decade off between its predecessor either like TS3.
It's quite alright. Plenty of room on the bandwagon. Get TOY SHORTY today. Continue...
Sunday, May 9, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/9/10
With a studio-estimated $133.6 opening weekend, IRON MAN 2 over $30 million off its hyperbolic tracking estimates of a $165 million, record-shattering weekend. If you have been following JCC, you are perfectly positioned to take advantage of the irrationality of the markets by shorting it. In fact, there's still money to be made if you get in now. JCC target estimates are for $322.65 million after 24 days, with average 50% successive weekend drops. This isn't the kind of supremely satisfying movie that elicits multiple repeat viewings a la THE DARK KNIGHT or AVATAR. Even some fanboys will be one-and-done with this feature.
What we've also learned is there is no such thing as being too prideful to make money. Yes, THE LOSERS are back. But at $30.85, we saw a prime opportunity to rectify one of our earlier mistakes, this time shorting our beloved LOSERS, which is obviously overvalued by a third by the market.
What did we really learn this weekend? Stay firm, my friends. When you believe in a position, stay firm. And when it comes to adjusting to market conditions...Stay thirsty, my friends.
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Friday, May 7, 2010
What I'm Seeing/Have Seen This Weekend 5/7
As per my Tweeted review, IRON MAN 2 is a @@@ caper: fun, irreverent, with a kick-ass climax. But what keeps it from its @@@@ predecessor is the heavy exposition in the second act that grinds the action-line to a halt. Sure, it's merely doing its job in deepening Tony Stark's backstory, setting up the Marvel Universe, and raising the emotional stakes. However, the first IRON MAN was able to keep the action humming at an appreciable clip while also making us care about the characters - without bogging the viewer down.
What does this mean for our investments? The much ballyhooed best weekend ever may not happen. This is a movie worth seeing 1.5 times in the theater, as in half the people will see it twice, half will only see it once. If it weren't for others wanting to see it with me, I would be perfectly fine with just seeing it once. In contrast, when IRON MAN opened in 2008, I was more than happy to see it on back-to-back nights. I think I may have even have seen it a third time in theaters.
I say all that to say this: IRON MAN 2 will print money its opening weekend, but not much longer after that. A new ROBIN HOOD trailer preceding my show looked better than the already intriguing ones before it - and that flick opens next weekend. Even if IRON MAN 2 makes its $165 million blogo-hypersphere predicted open, I still feel good about having it at $355 million after 24 days - which is a Herculean feat even at that. As we can see with our new and improved stats under "What I'm Trading," I have the JCC position currently undervaluing market rates at nearly 16% (JCC Target-Current Price) with our short position believing IRON MAN 2 is 13.63% overvalued to our JCC Target (Price Paid-JCC Target).
Translation? JCC believes the market has overvalued IM2 by 16% to what we've paid and that the box office will prove us to beat the market by at least 13% after 24 days. Stay tuned - and get short IRON MAN 2 at anything over $400. Plenty of money to be made...
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***THE REEL DEAL ARCHIVE***: IRON MAN
MAJOR PLAYERS: Robert Downey, Jr. (Chaplin), Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in Love), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Jeff Bridges (Seabiscuit), and director Jon Favreau (Elf).
"Constitutionally incapable of being responsible" Tony Stark (Downey), a genius billionaire industrialist by day and relentlessly shallow playboy by night, is captured by an Afghani ambush after demonstrating his lethal weaponry to the U.S. military. While under forced coercion to duplicate his wares for a terrorist army called the Ten Rings, Stark turns the tables, creating a hi-tech armored suit with which to kick copious amounts of bad guy ass. After busting out and returning to LA a changed man, Stark devotes his energy to fighting the evil he'd help create as the "Merchant of Death" weapons manufacturer only to find do-no-gooders closer to home than he had thought.
"I am SO geeking out right now!" So quoth the movie critic to his screening partner, who bobbed her head enthusiastically in agreement. And this is only a third of the way into the movie. Boys and girls...the summer has officially begun!
Shinier than its "hot rod red" suit, "Iron Man" is the perfect modern day comic book action hero movie. Beautifully scripted (by a credited committee of four, nonetheless) with production values off the chart, Marvel's first foray into film financing (this is their first fully funded venture out of their own pockets) is just flat-out fun from start to finish. It's laden with all the good, pertinent "isms" - terrorism, patriotism, altruism, and then some - while serving up a techie's wet dream of special effects; think "Minority Report" on meth. It will print money but, even better, it DESERVES to.
The Academy nominated cast doesn't hurt, either. Beefy, bald, and bearded Bridges glowers his way through every frame with the very comic book-ish halo of distrust over his grill as Obadiah Stane, Stark's business partner. Adorably strawberry-tressed Paltrow doesn't just mail in her Oscar talents, playing beyond spunky yet giving as good as she gets as Stark's Girl Friday personal assistant Pepper Potts. Even Howard shows signs of life despite a fairly background role as Stark's best friend Col. Jim Rhodes (yes, fanboys, we even get a hint at what's to come for Mr. Rhodes in the sequel (there WILL be a sequel, right?) with his longing glimpse in the third act at a War Machine suit).
Even though he claims to "not be the superhero type," Robert Downey, Jr. as Tony Stark is one of the most inspired pieces of superhero casting since...well, maybe ever. Tailoring the script's fizzy, contextual humor to his own rapid fire, subversively dry wit, Downey is BUILT for this. Especially early on, Tony lives so large, is so over-the-top playerish, he makes "Big Pimpin'" era Jay-Z look like Gary Coleman. His whips are tight, his clothes are fly, and his plane is just sick (think a party bus - in the air). Downey's Tony Stark is a 21st century superhero: flawed, a little sarcastic, yet solid enough at his core to accept his shortcomings enough to put them aside for the moment when duty calls. Attention, Hollywood: Having credible actors like Paltrow, Howard, and Downey only make such scenes like Stark's come-to-Jesus about weapons manufacturing moving and lactose intolerant. Just because it's a comic book movie does not mean it has to be cheesy.
Therein lies its universal appeal. Zigging when our cynical audience predicts it will zag, Favreau directs "Iron Man" with enough comedic zest, gearhead cool, and popcorn flick frenzy to complement every ounce of Downey's snarky charms. It also takes you to another world, a far more entertaining one in a surreal-rich LA that probably exists but I've never seen, whizzing by in two hours to deliver upon the lofty promise of its commercials. Cackling with childlike glee at Stark's attempts to fly, I once again leaned in to whisper, "Sign me up for 'Iron Man 2!'" And 3. And 4...
@@@@ REELS
(FOUR REELS)
An urban legend/instant classic.
© 2008, Edwardo Jackson
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Thursday, May 6, 2010
IRON MAN Eve
I have my ticket. 12:01 AM, IMAX, let's get it on.
I am excited but tempered. Sequels are hard to get right. We want them - need them - to be better than originals. EMPIRE STRIKES BACK to me is one of the best films - action or otherwise - of all-time. And I'm sure the hype in 1980 before it came out, must have been deafening.
Will IRON MAN 2 become a victim of its own hype? The 'net is crowing about a $165 million opening weekend - which would knock THE DARK KNIGHT off its pedestal as the best opening weekend of all-time. With ticket inflation alone, this could possibly be true. Lord knows if this sucker were in 3D, I'd be incredibly long on it. Considering there hasn't been a $50 million opening weekend since CLASH OF THE TITANS early April. Are people simply holding onto their money until IRON MAN 2? Probably.
So, let's say it does set the record. Will it gross over $400 million in 24 days, something only THE DARK KNIGHT and AVATAR (driven by 3D) have done? Even though my short term portfolio is taking a pounding for it, I'm incredibly short on IRON MAN 2 at $408.
Don't be a victim of the hype. Get short on IM2, too.
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Sunday, May 2, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/2/10
Having shorted NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET at $102 - despite the lovely charms of the soon-to-be-canceled "Melrose Place's" luscious Katie Cassidy - JCC couldn't be happier with somewhat soft opening on a decidedly soft weekend.
How soft was it? I didn't even go to the movies this weekend. I can count on one hand how many weekends I've missed going to the movies so far this year, and we're even talking about the traditional dead zone of January-February! At this rate, using the 2.7 opening weekend multiplier, ELM STREET is heading for an $86.9 million 24 day cume. I suspect this will be lower - say, $78-82 mil at best - with IRON MAN 2 coming in next weekend to suck up all the oxygen in the marketplace. If ELM STREET get so much as $14 million next weekend, it should consider itself lucky. I have divested myself of THE BACK-UP PLAN at $27 for a mild gain. With its $7 million second weekend for a total cume of $22 mil, this yawning exercise in chemistry-free romantic leads is on pace for some $33 million in business. Having shorted it at $30, I feel good at getting out while the getting was good. I feel bad about the taste of the American public, however (seriously, y'all, PLEASE check out Lopez in THE WEDDING PLANNER. Woefully underrated and Adam Shankman's studio debut (easily his best, most engaging work, closely followed by HAIRSPRAY), WEDDING PLANNER is low rent magic with two young stars before the calling of superstardom infected McConaughey and Lopez with bad choices).
FYI, I've added TAKERS to the portfolio. Featuring a young, hot, diverse cast of pretty faces spanning movies and music, TAKERS should clean up in the late August dead zone, especially since Matt Damon's THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU has vacated for 2011. Its only competition the opening weekend of August 20th is Bow Wow's FRIDAY-like LOTTERY TICKET and the NANNY MCPHEE sequel. Seriously. You can afford to be bullish on TAKERS and go long at $27.71. While Lionsgate's THE EXPENDABLES will have opened the weekend before to satisfy the older action audience, with its geriatric action heroes like Stallone and Schwarzenegger, TAKERS is left all alone to clean up the young action market. Should do at least $40 mil in biz, with a solid $15-17 million opening. Plus when my 67 year old mother wants to see it just from the previews, you've got something there.
Go long on TAKERS, like Montana to Rice. I have.
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Friday, April 30, 2010
LETTERS TO JULIET
Thursday, April 29, 2010
IRON MAN Backlash Begins?
We all know how short I am on IRON MAN 2 at $400+. I mean, I cannot get short enough on this stock. I think it will do fine at the box office but asking $400 million in 24 days is a Herculean task by any stretch of the imagination (or stretch of Scarlett Johansson's hot black catsuit). And with ROBIN (of the) HOOD trailers looking more and more like ye Olde English GLADIATOR, IM Deuce's box office prospects may be somewhat impacted. I wish IRON MAN 2 well and desperately want to be entertained next weekend, but this film's $100 overvalued.
The market is already starting to turn against it, however slightly. For the first time since I have started shorting it, IRON MAN 2 has gone below my average price paid. Considering the movie is still a week away from release, this is a great sign that the market is coming to grips with how overvalued it is.
Get short, IM2. Get as short as you possibly can.
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Sunday, April 25, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 4/25/10
There's a saying that goes something like "No one has ever gone broke underestimating the taste of the American public." Or something like that. Such has been proven with this lackluster weekend at the North American box office.Do I have sour grapes about THE LOSERS staggering to the weekend tape with a paltry estimated $9.6 mil for fourth place? Absolutely. That movie is the type of fun, disposable action-lite movie
that tends to do pretty well two months from now.
With the HSX common multiplier of a movie's 4 week box office performance averaging out to 2.7 times its opening weekend gross, that puts THE LOSERS well short of my average long of $42. Sad to say, I will be reducing most of my exposure to it, if not all (word of mouth has been strong online, yet not translated to box office receipts. Hmm...).But then you have J-Lo and her horrendously marketed THE BACK-UP PLAN. It's one of those "high concept" comedies that featured nary a single laugh in any of its ubiquitous trailers and commercials. And when you see the movie, it's all that you're scared it would be: less-than-sporadically amusing, tortured dialogue, and somewhat chemistry-free. I will say this for CBS (Films): they are committed to their stars. Consider this Alex O'Loughlin's third failed pilot.
True, THE BACK-UP PLAN is estimated at north of $12 mil this weekend. But that multiplier only spells out to $32 mil in 4 weeks, so I feel okay about still shorting it at $30. Once word gets out how wack it is after this weekend, it will precipitously drop. Expect about $27 mil overall, despite having the big name rom-com landscape all to itself.
But look at HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON go! I only wish I could've gone even longer on this film. I love this film. It is a visual and storytelling delight. Even on a weekend where the American public got it wrong, they can still get some things right. We just can't make any money off them.
And a shout-out to OCEANS! With a four day opening gross of $8.46 estimated, that 2.7 multiplier has us sitting pretty at $22.8 in 24. Not a bad pick-up for long at $12, eh?
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
THE REEL DEAL Archive: THE WEDDING PLANNER
MAJOR PLAYERS : Jennifer Lopez (The Cell) and Matthew McConaughey (U-571).
I fought this one, y'all. Despite Jenny Lo-Lo's obvious Crush-worthy charms, I really wanted not to like this one. But a surprising thing happened en route to @@ City - it ended up charming the cynicism off of me.
Mary Fiore (Lopez) is an especially anal, highly successful, very lonely wedding planner ("Those who can't wed, plan"). If she can land San Francisco's wedding of the year, the Donolly Wedding, then she will earn a partnership in the company. When Mary is saved by dashing young doctor Steve Edison (McConaughey) from a freak accident, she entertains the notion of opening up her insular little world - that is until she finds out that Steve is MARRYING Francine Donolly (Bridgette Wilson).
Despite a hilarious Italian immigrant (Justin Chambers) obsessed with marrying her, the only relationship that matters in this movie is Mary and Steve's. Luckily, Lopez and McConaughey have enough chemistry to pull it off. After flaming out on his own "A Time to Kill" hype as the next big thing, Matthew McConaughey has staged a quiet little comeback of quality work, adding "Planner" to "U-571"'s theatrical success. And this movie should play well into Valentine's Day week, thanks to his charming, back-and-forth chemistry with Lopez.
Ah, Jennifer. J.Lo. We loved you in "Out of Sight," didn't understand why you did "The Cell," but now we're ready to love you all over again. Often playing an extension of herself (i.e. calm and guarded), Jenny Lo-Lo goes outside herself to play the well-organized yet insecure and jittery Mary. I mean, Lopez is absolutely adorable in this film, from her curious, inviting eyes to her inquisitive little head tilts. Not since "Selena" have we seen J-Lo so vulnerable.
She gets a lot of help. The wardrobe on this flick, particularly for the two leads, is impressive in its simplicity; they look like walking ads for J. Crew and The Gap. With all the various weddings featured in the movie, major props to the art department, too. I know they had to work overtime to make everything as beautiful as it was. Lopez's hair and nails were impeccable, almost distracting at times was her flawless French manicure. Although part of my resistance lay in the over-emotionally manipulative musical score, it was refreshing to hear a soundtrack so romantic, so old school, it was like listening to a modern reinterpretation of Tchaikovsky's "Peter and the Wolf."
And that, sadly enough, is where this film got me - in it's romance. At times it tries too hard, but, more often than not, "Planner" gets it right, layering on the sentimentality and sap where the comedy fails. And the comedy does fail - the script is unimpressive and not terribly funny. It doesn't always get it right, but as a date movie, as much as I fought it, "The Wedding Planner" just WORKS. In a world where we are highly desensitized, where we are jaded and cynical to the point of emotional neutrality, I welcome a movie like "The Wedding Planner, a movie that optimistically sweetens through its sap. I could use a little more sap in my life. I think we all could.
@@@ REELS
(THREE REELS)
It's pretty hot - go give it a shot.
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What I'm Seeing this Weekend
Just so I can see how much of a train wreck it really will be.
Believe it or not, I actually was one of the few, the brave who paid cash money to go see GIGLI its opening weekend. Yep - GIGLI. In all honesty, it wasn't THAT bad. But it wasn't THAT good at all either.
I predict a similarly soft opening for our girl J-Lo. Despite supersaturated marketing, I expect a $6 mil opening, en route to $27-28 mil in 4 week cume. I stand firm on shorting it at $30.
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What to do about THE LOSERS?
Maybe I'm just hard-headed. But every time I see THE LOSERS trailer, it brings a smile to my face. Big guns, hot girl, things that go boom. What could be more escapist than that? Plus you have the likable Jeffrey Dean Morgan ("Grey's Anatomy," WATCHMEN), goofy pseudo-hunk Chris Evans, and the "still too skinny for me but she could still get it" Zoe Saldana...Sounds like a good time to me.Who's gonna stop them? THE BACK-UP PLAN (or, as J-Lo calls it, "Fly Girl Dancer")? Please. Look for THE LOSERS to surprise with a $20 million opening weekend, en route to a $60 mil cume in 24 days with good reviews. Of course, this could all change when I see it on Friday and it sucks.
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Why Do I Short and the Shorting of SHREK
Take IRON MAN 2 for example. Shorting it at $403 - let alone its current price of $406 - is a no-brainer. Only two films in the history of mankind have grossed over $400 million in their first 24 days: THE DARK KNIGHT and AVATAR. Does IRON MAN 2 look wildly cool and entertaining? Yes. But asking it to AVERAGE over $16 MILLION A DAY is simply ridiculous. James Cameron's full-court press and the added 3-D ticket price made AVATAR's first $400 milli possible. With THE DARK KNIGHT, even your grandmomma knew of Batman. Unless she's a hot granny under 50 or comic book fangirl, I promise you she's never heard of Tony Stark.
So I short. I short, I short, I short. I short SEX AND THE CITY 2 at $185 because the first one grossed $153 OVER ITS ENTIRE RUN. I short THE A-TEAM because the '80s are over and it joins a crowded action tentpole marketplace that will have ROBIN HOOD, PRINCE OF PERSIA, and IRON MAN 2 already out, competing for the same dollars. I short PRINCE OF PERSIA because videogame adaptations have been notoriously tricky to be profitable (and definitely not for $173 mil in 24 days). And even IRON MAN 2 is at least $100 million overvalued.
I short, I short, I short. Until the film derivative community figures it out, I suggest you do the same. Together, it's time for us to GET SHORTY.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 4/18/10
I've been bullish on DRAGON since seeing it opening weekend twice (gotta go see it with your family once, right?) and knew it had legs. Having gone long on it every step of the way, DRAGON's close out tomorrow will reap juicy returns as it is estimated to have a final 24 day cum of $158.6 mil.
A late surge for HOT TUB TIME MACHINE ($42.5 mil cume) will yield a mild win for JCC as we were long at $42.26.
And as much as I despise Tyler Perry films, with $54.8 mil cume in 17 days, being long at $59 should be a slight victory as I predict a 24 day cume of $60-61 mil.
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