Friday, June 11, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 6/11/10
Man vs. Machine - the classic battle. Ready... Fight!
Box Office Predict, a site that has attempted to impose rationality on the irrational tastes of humans by predicting box office performance by their proprietary statistically driven model called GENAU (would've loved to see models that predicted Tyler Perry coming!), and JCC are involved in an ideological struggle, a la Jack vs. Locke, reason vs. faith. GENAU predicts an uber-soft $23.1 mil opening for THE KARATE KID, a favorite around here for those who have been following JCC. I predict a $45 million opening, and am long on it for an average of $101 (I have bought shares of it as high as $107). At $23.1, the 24 day, 2.7 multiplier would put it at $62.37, while my $45 million opening puts it at $121.5, the current JCC Target.
By the end of this weekend, there will be a victor. But given how JCM Cinema Capital invests from a 24 day holistic standpoint, one of us, or both of us, can be right or wrong, and still have JCC be right. While I believe THE KARATE KID will gross significantly more than $23 million this weekend, even if it doesn't, I still believe it will be significantly profitable at $101 mil after 24 days.
Who are you with - man...or MACHINE???
Oh, yeah, and THE A-TEAM will be seen, too. Stay valued, my friends.
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