Friday, June 18, 2010
What I'm Seeing this Weekend 6/18/10
Not an overly exciting weekend yet a productive one.
Naturally, I'm seeing TOY STORY 3. I have no doubt Pixar will entertain. However, I am over the age of seven, have no kids, and am not super-crunk to go see this one. The last TOY STORY was some 11 years ago, when I had even less reason to cotton to Pixar movies as fledgling adult, so I don't share any nostalgia for this trilogy.
And it is that muted interest that I am counting on. Over here at JCC, we are shorting TS3 (as our SJP of the moment) at $335, targeted at $256. While the blogosphere is abuzz with $120 million opening predictions, I predict an opening in the $95 million range.
All these $120 mil openings floating out there are ridiculous. IRON MAN 2 was the highest tracked movie of the year – EVERYBODY knew about it/wanted to see it – and it could only scrape together $128 million. Pixar’s highest opening weekend ever was for THE INCREDIBLES (a fine movie) with $70.5 mil in 2004. Even in 2010 dollars, that’s probably about $77-79 mil.
True, 3D and inflation may add some more to potential box office, but Pixar doesn’t do huge, blockbuster openings. They do very large openings with long, long legs (which is why I am short on TS3 at $321; it may get there in cume, but not in 24 days). Pixar movies tend to gross less than 30% of their final gross in their opening weekends, as opposed to the SHREK movies which average over 30% – LEGS. Plus Mom is only mildly interested in seeing it this weekend; don't doubt my box office bellwether!
Believe it or not, I am going to see JONAH HEX as well. I think its marketing has been atrocious, the lead is so disfigured as to be unwatchable, and Megan Fox has proven not to be able to open a closet door outside of the TRANSFORMERS franchise. But it's got John Malkovich, Lance Reddick ("Fringe", "The Wire") as a Reconstruction-era Q-like gadgets guru, and it's still got the visuals of the very same Megan Fox. It's worth a peek. Also, I want to see what a 12% Rotten Tomatoes reviewed film looks like, so I can gleefully watch how far it will drop (shorting at $82 it has already plummeted 45% and past my wildest dreams). Box Office Predict's $10.6 estimate holds true, that sucker could sink to $28. We can only hope.
The rest of the portfolio, with its gaudy 24%-positive per position status, is pretty damn healthy considering TWILIGHT hype has surpassed its true value at this point. But when hype and reality meet after next weekend, watch for IRON MAN 2 like drops...
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