What I'm Trading
Monday, June 28, 2010
What We've Learned this Weekend: 6/28/10
The lessons keep coming. The market...not so much.
1. Pixar can't stop, won't stop.
Averaging $14 mil a day during the week and continuing the trend with a plus-sized second weekend of $59 mil, TOY STORY 3 keeps making me reset the JCC Target. While now targeted at $315, it's not quite the SJP we thought it would be, but still will provide positive value when it's all said and done. Currently trading at $331, there's still about 5% more value to be had in shorting this film.
2. The market is still slow on the uptake.
That's the only way to explain how/why JONAH HEX, with an anemic $1.6 million weekend and on pace for our JCC Target of $12.74 mil (if not its 2.7 multiplier of $14.53 mil) is still being traded at twice that amount. At $24, it's a joke - and still open to value hunters all over with a 91% difference between our target price and its current price.
Same goes for our beloved A-TEAM, which, with one week left to go, still hovers over $80 when it can't possibly make more than $73. Short away, my friends. I just wonder if the HSX will be as painfully unaware as the real-money Cantor Exchange.
And speaking of...
3. THE CANTOR EXCHANGE WAS APPROVED BY THE CFTC TODAY!!!
Never mind that Congress has language in the conference version of fin-reg designed to kill it. With Cantor and crew the most trading ready of the two approved markets, look for them to dive headfirst into trading ASAP, and battle any future legislation in the court system.
TWILIGHT: ECLIPSE is trading at a laughably high $328, despite our $321 short position. Get a grip, y'all. Nobody male over the age of 25 cares about this franchise, which runs incredibly hot in its opening weekend (we predict a $120 million haul) before dropping precipitously (i.e. 72% for its second weekend for NEW MOON). Neither one of the previous TWILIGHT movies have even sniffed $300 milli, nor will this one. It doesn't have 3D and it's one-demo focused. IMAX will help, but only so much. It's our current SJP of the moment, currently overvalued by 24%. Although pre-release hype is currently killing my short term portfolio, anticipate long term riches. Get short, like, right now.
And with that, enjoy your week. Real money trading is just around the corner! Stay valued, my friends.
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