JCM Cinema
Capital

Freddy's back...But can $32.2 million estimated rip this opening weekend be viewed as a disappointment? Not if you're JCM Cinema Capital...

Having shorted NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET at $102 - despite the lovely charms of the soon-to-be-canceled "Melrose Place's" luscious Katie Cassidy - JCC couldn't be happier with somewhat soft opening on a decidedly soft weekend. 


How soft was it? I didn't even go to the movies this weekend. I can count on one hand how many weekends I've missed going to the movies so far this year, and we're even talking about the traditional dead zone of January-February! At this rate, using the 2.7 opening weekend multiplier, ELM STREET is heading for an $86.9 million 24 day cume. I suspect this will be lower - say, $78-82 mil at best - with IRON MAN 2 coming in next weekend to suck up all the oxygen in the marketplace. If ELM STREET get so much as $14 million next weekend, it should consider itself lucky. 

I have divested myself of THE BACK-UP PLAN at $27 for a mild gain. With its $7 million second weekend for a total cume of $22 mil, this yawning exercise in chemistry-free romantic leads is on pace for some $33 million in business. Having shorted it at $30, I feel good at getting out while the getting was good. I feel bad about the taste of the American public, however (seriously, y'all, PLEASE check out Lopez in THE WEDDING PLANNER. Woefully underrated and Adam Shankman's studio debut (easily his best, most engaging work, closely followed by HAIRSPRAY), WEDDING PLANNER is low rent magic with two young stars before the calling of superstardom infected McConaughey and Lopez with bad choices). 


FYI, I've added TAKERS to the portfolio. Featuring a young, hot, diverse cast of pretty faces spanning movies and music, TAKERS should clean up in the late August dead zone, especially since Matt Damon's THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU has vacated for 2011. Its only competition the opening weekend of August 20th is Bow Wow's FRIDAY-like LOTTERY TICKET and the NANNY MCPHEE sequel. Seriously. You can afford to be bullish on TAKERS and go long at $27.71. While Lionsgate's THE EXPENDABLES will have opened the weekend before to satisfy the older action audience, with its geriatric action heroes like Stallone and Schwarzenegger, TAKERS is left all alone to clean up the young action market. Should do at least $40 mil in biz, with a solid $15-17 million opening. Plus when my 67 year old mother wants to see it just from the previews, you've got something there.

Go long on TAKERS, like Montana to Rice. I have.