What I'm Trading

Friday, May 7, 2010

What I'm Seeing/Have Seen This Weekend 5/7

Just got back from my 12:01 AM screening of IRON MAN 2. The movie is more - and less. And therein lies the problem. But not for JCM Cinema Capital.

As per my Tweeted review, IRON MAN 2 is a @@@ caper: fun, irreverent, with a kick-ass climax. But what keeps it from its @@@@ predecessor is the heavy exposition in the second act that grinds the action-line to a halt. Sure, it's merely doing its job in deepening Tony Stark's backstory, setting up the Marvel Universe, and raising the emotional stakes. However, the first IRON MAN was able to keep the action humming at an appreciable clip while also making us care about the characters - without bogging the viewer down.



What does this mean for our investments? The much ballyhooed best weekend ever may not happen. This is a movie worth seeing 1.5 times in the theater, as in half the people will see it twice, half will only see it once. If it weren't for others wanting to see it with me, I would be perfectly fine with just seeing it once. In contrast, when IRON MAN opened in 2008, I was more than happy to see it on back-to-back nights. I think I may have even have seen it a third time in theaters. 


I say all that to say this: IRON MAN 2 will print money its opening weekend, but not much longer after that. A new ROBIN HOOD trailer preceding my show looked better than the already intriguing ones before it - and that flick opens next weekend. Even if IRON MAN 2 makes its $165 million blogo-hypersphere predicted open, I still feel good about having it at $355 million after 24 days - which is a Herculean feat even at that. As we can see with our new and improved stats under "What I'm Trading," I have the JCC position currently undervaluing market rates at nearly 16% (JCC Target-Current Price) with our short position believing IRON MAN 2 is 13.63% overvalued to our JCC Target (Price Paid-JCC Target). 


Translation? JCC believes the market has overvalued IM2 by 16% to what we've paid and that the box office will prove us to beat the market by at least 13% after 24 days. Stay tuned - and get short IRON MAN 2 at anything over $400. Plenty of money to be made...

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