What I'm Trading

Sunday, May 9, 2010

What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/9/10

While we are up 10% on IRON MAN 2's cratering trading price, it's been as high as 15% yesterday. What have we learned? This market is irrational. Good thing JCM Cinema Capital isn't.

With a studio-estimated $133.6 opening weekend, IRON MAN 2 over $30 million off its hyperbolic tracking estimates of a $165 million, record-shattering weekend. If you have been following JCC, you are perfectly positioned to take advantage of the irrationality of the markets by shorting it. In fact, there's still money to be made if you get in now. JCC target estimates are for $322.65 million after 24 days, with average 50% successive weekend drops. This isn't the kind of supremely satisfying movie that elicits multiple repeat viewings a la THE DARK KNIGHT or AVATAR. Even some fanboys will be one-and-done with this feature.



What we've also learned is there is no such thing as being too prideful to make money. Yes, THE LOSERS are back. But at $30.85, we saw a prime opportunity to rectify one of our earlier mistakes, this time shorting our beloved LOSERS, which is obviously overvalued by a third by the market. 


What did we really learn this weekend? Stay firm, my friends. When you believe in a position, stay firm. And when it comes to adjusting to market conditions...Stay thirsty, my friends.

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