What I'm Trading

Sunday, May 16, 2010

What We've Learned this Weekend: 5/16/10

Never trust teenage girls - unless you're TWILIGHT.

I can't even revel in this weekend's 60% drop in IRON MAN 2 (and subsequent market reaction) because of those damn tweenagers. As reflected by its notable absence in my portfolio, LETTERS TO JULIET has been jettisoned, along with 22% of my investment and the blogosphere's hopes that Amanda Seyfried would become "the next Julia Roberts." When EAT PRAY LOVE comes out in August, the real Julia Roberts will undoubtedly out-Julia Seyfried and show her how it's done with some box office worth a damn. Opening to a stool-softened $13.8 mil after weeks of previews and teenage girl giggling, even with only 25-30% weekly drops, maintaining a long position at almost $45 would be untenable. Bah humbug.



However, the market has been unusually slow to adjust to a couple of properties: OCEANS and THE LOSERS. With OCEANS set to delist today, we had to sell our long position from $12.29 today at $17.21 for a whopping 40% profit. Cash in hand, it was promptly reinvested (along with the smattering of our JULIET losses) right into THE LOSERS today. Somehow, some way, this movie, which has grossed only $22.3 million through Friday, was still trading at $27.5 as of post time. Unbelievable. So we're shorting accordingly for some last minute profits before it delists at its true price tomorrow, which we gauge should be no more than $23.3.


Moral to our madness? Even when it's darkest, there is dawn. Let that also be a tease for a newly discovered, wildly overvalued property on the Exchange that I shall reveal later this week (after I have taken my appropriate position, of course). As my neverending quest for value continues, I have discovered a property so grossly overvalued, I am calling it "the new TOY STORY 3" - which is sayin' somethin'. Stay tuned. And stay valued, my friends.

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